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Sweden vs Greece

World World

Friendly International Strawberry Arena
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Sweden play Greece in the Friendly International. It looks like a close match. Recently, Sweden averaged 1.93 goals scored and 1.67 conceded. Greece averaged 1.77 goals scored and 1.03 conceded. In past meetings, Sweden won 2, Greece won 2, and they drew 1. Their last match on Jun 4, 2026 ended 2:2. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.56 for Sweden and 1.44 for Greece. This points to a Greece double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

42%
Sweden
16%
Draws
42%
Greece
Draw rate projection: 16% Favored: Greece

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

68% / Medium Confidence
  • Sweden picked up more points recently compared to Greece.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.56 vs 1.44 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 63%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 85%
Over 2.5 Goals 63%
Over 3.5 Goals 38%
Over 4.5 Goals 19%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 46%
Sweden Clean Sheet 16%
Greece Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 77%
Second Half Goal 81%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Sweden Greece
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 14 15
Draws 5 4
Losses 11 11
Goals Scored 1.93 1.77
Goals Conceded 1.67 1.03
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 2.00 1.75

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 4, 2026 Friendly International
Sweden vs Greece
2:2
Oct 12, 2021 World Championship
Sweden vs Greece
2:0
Sep 8, 2021 World Championship
Greece vs Sweden
2:1
Jun 10, 2008 Euro
Greece vs Sweden
0:2
Aug 20, 2003 Friendly International
Sweden vs Greece
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Sweden Compare

Top Goalscorer Gyökeres V.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Nilsson G.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Greece Compare

Top Goalscorer Tsimikas K.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Masouras G.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.49

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Sweden 41 / 100
Greece 40 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Sweden Greece

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Greece or Draw (X2)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +23.5%
2.94
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +10.3%
1.75
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Sweden attacking → ← attacking Greece

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Sweden scored in 80% of their last 30 games.

Greece let in goals in 57% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 2.80 goals.

Sweden went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Greece lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

47 Points in last 5 49
1.38 Goals expected (xG) 0.88
2.00 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.75