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Swinoujscie vs Tluchowo Prediction & H2H Stats

Poland Poland

III Liga - Group II 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

43' Event
Paczuk P.

AI Match Summary

Swinoujscie in this III Liga - Group II 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Swinoujscie.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

26%
Swinoujscie
15%
Draws
59%
Tluchowo
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Tluchowo

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

59% / Medium Confidence
  • Tluchowo haven't matched Swinoujscie's recent run of results.
  • Tluchowo are the model's pick here, at 50%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 69%
Over 4.5 Goals 31%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.4%
Swinoujscie Clean Sheet 10%
Tluchowo Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Swinoujscie Tluchowo
Matches Played 35 29
Wins 12 8
Draws 7 5
Losses 16 16
Goals Scored 1.46 1.24
Goals Conceded 1.94 2.1
Expected Goals (xG) 2.13 2.44
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 28, 2026 III Liga - Group II
Swinoujscie vs Tluchowo
1:0
Aug 16, 2025 III Liga - Group II
Tluchowo vs Swinoujscie
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Swinoujscie Compare

Top Goalscorer Paczuk P.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.64
Avg xA / game 1.06

Tluchowo Compare

Avg xG / game 2.22
Avg xA / game 1.36

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Swinoujscie 22 / 100
Tluchowo 47 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Swinoujscie Tluchowo

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Tluchowo Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Tluchowo has conceded goals in 83% of their last 29 outings.

Swinoujscie scored in 71% of their last 35 games.

H2H data points to 1.00 goals as a typical output.

Swinoujscie has registered 2 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Swinoujscie VS Tluchowo
1.25 Goals Scored 3
1.88 Goals Conceded 3
88% Over 1.5 100%
63% Over 2.5 100%
38% Over 3.5 100%

Recent Form & Match History

Swinoujscie

(Home)
03 Oct
Notec Czarnkow
3 : 0
Swinoujscie
26 Sept
Swinoujscie
0 : 2
Unia Swarzedz
19 Sept
Grom Nowy Staw
5 : 0
Swinoujscie
12 Sept
Swinoujscie
1 : 1
Gedania Gdansk
05 Sept
Lipno Steszew
1 : 3
Swinoujscie
Page 1 of 7

Tluchowo

(Away)
18 Jul
GKS Belchatow
4 : 1
Tluchowo
30 May
Elana Torun
2 : 5
Tluchowo
22 May
Tluchowo
1 : 4
Blekitni Stargard
16 May
Wda Swiecie
1 : 2
Tluchowo
13 May
Tluchowo
3 : 1
Lech Poznan II
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Zawisza 34 25 5 4 73:23 80
2 Luzino 34 24 4 6 79:39 76
3 Polonia Sroda Wielkopol 34 20 6 8 67:43 66
4 Lipno Steszew 34 15 6 13 47:54 51
5 Notec Czarnkow 34 14 7 13 49:46 49
6 Lech Poznan II 34 14 7 13 67:54 49
7 Elana Torun 34 14 7 13 49:55 49
8 Swinoujscie 34 14 7 13 48:52 49
9 Wda Swiecie 34 14 6 14 44:66 48
10 Unia Swarzedz 34 13 8 13 47:41 47
11 Kluczevia Stargard 34 13 7 14 54:43 46
12 Blekitni Stargard 34 12 9 13 56:51 45
13 Victoria Wrzesnia 34 13 3 18 41:46 42
14 Pogon Szczecin II 34 12 5 17 75:66 41
15 Nowe Skalmierzyce 34 10 9 15 35:46 39
16 Cartusia Kartuzy 34 11 5 18 38:51 38
17 Tluchowo 34 8 7 19 37:66 31
18 Wybrzeze Rewalskie Rewal 34 3 6 25 20:84 15
Promotion - Division 2 (Main)
Promotion - Division 2 2025/2026 (Relegation - Play Offs)