Sport Picks

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Swinoujscie vs Tluchowo

Poland Poland

III Liga - Group II 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

43' Event
Paczuk P.

AI Match Summary

Swinoujscie in this III Liga - Group II 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Swinoujscie.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%
Swinoujscie
30%
Draws
34%
Tluchowo
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Swinoujscie

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

66% / Medium Confidence
  • Swinoujscie haven't matched Tluchowo's recent run of results.
  • Swinoujscie are the model's pick here, at 36%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 80%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 80%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.8%
Swinoujscie Clean Sheet 10%
Tluchowo Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Swinoujscie Tluchowo
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 7 8
Draws 7 5
Losses 15 16
Goals Scored 1.38 2.29
Goals Conceded 1.5 2.57
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 2.29
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.50 2.57

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 28, 2026 III Liga - Group II
Swinoujscie vs Tluchowo
1:0
Aug 16, 2025 III Liga - Group II
Tluchowo vs Swinoujscie
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Swinoujscie Compare

Top Goalscorer Paczuk P.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Tluchowo Compare

Avg xG / game 2.08
Avg xA / game 1.27

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Swinoujscie 34 / 100
Tluchowo 33 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Swinoujscie Tluchowo

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Tluchowo has conceded goals in 83% of their last 29 outings.

Swinoujscie scored in 66% of their last 29 games.

H2H data points to 1.00 goals as a typical output.

Swinoujscie has registered 2 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Swinoujscie VS Tluchowo
1.38 Goals Scored 2.29
1.5 Goals Conceded 2.57
75% Over 1.5 100%
75% Over 2.5 100%
38% Over 3.5 86%

Recent Form & Match History

Swinoujscie

(Home)
25 Jul
Warta Gorzow
1 : 1
Swinoujscie
18 Jul
Swinoujscie
1 : 2
Baltyk Koszalin
11 Jul
Blekitni Stargard
4 : 0
Swinoujscie
11 Jul
Swit Szczecin
3 : 2
Swinoujscie
05 Jul
Swinoujscie
4 : 1
Warta Gorzow
Page 1 of 6

Tluchowo

(Away)
18 Jul
GKS Belchatow
4 : 1
Tluchowo
30 May
Elana Torun
2 : 5
Tluchowo
22 May
Tluchowo
1 : 4
Blekitni Stargard
16 May
Wda Swiecie
1 : 2
Tluchowo
13 May
Tluchowo
3 : 1
Lech Poznan II
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Zawisza34255473:2380
2Luzino34244679:3976
3Polonia Sroda Wielkopol34206867:4366
4Lipno Steszew341561347:5451
5Notec Czarnkow341471349:4649
6Lech Poznan II341471367:5449
7Elana Torun341471349:5549
8Swinoujscie341471348:5249
9Wda Swiecie341461444:6648
10Unia Swarzedz341381347:4147
11Kluczevia Stargard341371454:4346
12Blekitni Stargard341291356:5145
13Victoria Wrzesnia341331841:4642
14Pogon Szczecin II341251775:6641
15Nowe Skalmierzyce341091535:4639
16Cartusia Kartuzy341151838:5138
17Tluchowo34871937:6631
18Wybrzeze Rewalskie Rewal34362520:8415
Promotion - Division 2 (Main)
Promotion - Division 2 2025/2026 (Relegation - Play Offs)