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Tacoma Defiance vs Austin FC II

USA USA

MLS Next Pro 2025 Starfire Sports, Tukwila, WA
Tacoma Defiance Logo

Tacoma Defiance

1 - 2
FT
Austin FC II Logo

Austin FC II

Our Tip

Match Events

13'
Diaw B.
19'
Kingston P.
30' Event
Barro D.
Assist: Burton M.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Austin FC II in this MLS Next Pro 2025 matchup, with the score ending 1-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Austin FC II.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%
Tacoma Defiance
15%
Draws
49%
Austin FC II
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Austin FC II

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

49% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Austin FC II lately — more wins on the board than Tacoma Defiance.
  • Win probability leans Austin FC II's way, sitting at 40%.
  • Regular MLS Next Pro 2025 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors Austin FC II here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.6%
Tacoma Defiance Clean Sheet 10%
Austin FC II Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Tacoma Defiance Austin FC II
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 16 22
Draws 0 0
Losses 14 8
Goals Scored 1.63 1.97
Goals Conceded 1.57 0.93
Expected Goals (xG) 1.44 1.94
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 11, 2026 MLS Next Pro
Austin FC II vs Tacoma Defiance
3:0
Mar 23, 2026 MLS Next Pro
Tacoma Defiance vs Austin FC II
0:1
Sep 13, 2025 MLS Next Pro
Tacoma Defiance vs Austin FC II
1:2
Mar 16, 2024 MLS Next Pro
Austin FC II vs Tacoma Defiance
1:3
Oct 9, 2023 MLS Next Pro
Tacoma Defiance vs Austin FC II
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Tacoma Defiance Compare

Top Goalscorer Khoury J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.11
Avg xA / game 0.72

Austin FC II Compare

Top Goalscorer Barro D.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Alastuey J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.76
Avg xA / game 1.08

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Tacoma Defiance 26 / 100
Austin FC II 38 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Tacoma Defiance Austin FC II

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Austin FC II Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Tacoma Defiance's goal record stands at 73% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

These sides typically produce 2.40 goals when they meet.

Solid form: Tacoma Defiance remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Austin FC II's defensive record shows goals conceded in 53% of 30 matches.

Scoring Trends

Tacoma Defiance VS Austin FC II
2 Goals Scored 1.75
2.13 Goals Conceded 0.88
100% Over 1.5 63%
100% Over 2.5 63%
50% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Tacoma Defiance

(Home)
20 Sept
Tacoma Defiance
2 : 1
Portland Timbers 2
14 Sept
Ventura County
3 : 0
Tacoma Defiance
06 Sept
San Jose Earthquakes II
1 : 2
Tacoma Defiance
31 Aug
Real Monarchs
3 : 0
Tacoma Defiance
25 Aug
Tacoma Defiance
4 : 0
Sporting Kansas City II
Page 1 of 6

Austin FC II

(Away)
20 Sept
St. Louis City 2
0 : 2
Austin FC II
14 Sept
Austin FC II
1 : 0
Colorado Rapids 2
04 Sept
Houston Dynamo 2
0 : 2
Austin FC II
30 Aug
Portland Timbers 2
2 : 1
Austin FC II
24 Aug
Austin FC II
1 : 0
San Jose Earthquakes II
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 New York Red Bulls II 28 19 0 9 68:56 58
2 Philadelphia Union II 28 20 0 8 64:34 58
3 New England Revolution II 28 19 0 9 54:37 54
4 Chicago Fire II 28 17 0 11 69:58 48
5 FC Cincinnati 2 28 16 0 12 40:41 41
6 Toronto FC II 28 12 0 16 34:42 38
7 New York City II 28 11 0 17 53:61 35
8 Columbus Crew 2 28 6 0 22 40:64 22
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League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Chattanooga 28 18 0 10 42:36 53
2 Huntsville City 28 18 0 10 56:32 52
3 Carolina Core 28 13 0 15 42:44 39
4 Atlanta United 2 28 11 0 17 44:43 38
5 Orlando City B 28 13 0 15 38:55 37
6 Crown Legacy 28 10 0 18 45:54 32
7 Inter Miami II 28 7 0 21 40:72 25
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League Standings (Group 3)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 San Jose Earthquakes II 28 18 0 10 59:36 52
2 Real Monarchs 28 17 0 11 55:42 51
3 Vancouver Whitecaps 2 28 15 0 13 61:54 42
4 Ventura County 28 13 0 15 48:51 41
5 Portland Timbers 2 28 12 0 16 47:54 38
6 Tacoma Defiance 28 12 0 16 62:67 36
7 Los Angeles FC 2 28 11 0 17 47:61 33
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League Standings (Group 4)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 St. Louis City 2 28 22 0 6 60:37 62
2 Colorado Rapids 2 28 16 0 12 55:40 51
3 Minnesota United 2 28 14 0 14 45:42 44
4 North Texas 28 15 0 13 46:56 43
5 Austin FC II 28 13 0 15 35:36 41
6 Houston Dynamo 2 28 13 0 15 40:47 37
7 Sporting Kansas City II 28 5 0 23 30:67 17
Promotion - MLS Next Pro 2025 (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 5)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 New York Red Bulls II 28 19 0 9 68:56 58
2 Philadelphia Union II 28 20 0 8 64:34 58
3 New England Revolution II 28 19 0 9 54:37 54
4 Chattanooga 28 18 0 10 42:36 53
5 Huntsville City 28 18 0 10 56:32 52
6 Chicago Fire II 28 17 0 11 69:58 48
7 FC Cincinnati 2 28 16 0 12 40:41 41
8 Carolina Core 28 13 0 15 42:44 39
9 Toronto FC II 28 12 0 16 34:42 38
10 Atlanta United 2 28 11 0 17 44:43 38
11 Orlando City B 28 13 0 15 38:55 37
12 New York City II 28 11 0 17 53:61 35
13 Crown Legacy 28 10 0 18 45:54 32
14 Inter Miami II 28 7 0 21 40:72 25
15 Columbus Crew 2 28 6 0 22 40:64 22
Promotion - MLS Next Pro 2025 (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 6)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 St. Louis City 2 28 22 0 6 60:37 62
2 San Jose Earthquakes II 28 18 0 10 59:36 52
3 Colorado Rapids 2 28 16 0 12 55:40 51
4 Real Monarchs 28 17 0 11 55:42 51
5 Minnesota United 2 28 14 0 14 45:42 44
6 North Texas 28 15 0 13 46:56 43
7 Vancouver Whitecaps 2 28 15 0 13 61:54 42
8 Ventura County 28 13 0 15 48:51 41
9 Austin FC II 28 13 0 15 35:36 41
10 Portland Timbers 2 28 12 0 16 47:54 38
11 Houston Dynamo 2 28 13 0 15 40:47 37
12 Tacoma Defiance 28 12 0 16 62:67 36
13 Los Angeles FC 2 28 11 0 17 47:61 33
14 Sporting Kansas City II 28 5 0 23 30:67 17
Promotion - MLS Next Pro 2025 (Play Offs)