Sport Picks

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Taffs Well vs Newport City

Wales Wales

Cymru South 2024/2025
Our Tip

Match Events

90' Event
Thompson M.

AI Match Summary

The Cymru South 2024/2025 game between Taffs Well and Newport City finished 0-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Newport City.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

51%
Taffs Well
15%
Draws
34%
Newport City
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Taffs Well

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

34% / Low Confidence
  • Newport City carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 34% — that's where the model lands on Newport City taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71%
Taffs Well Clean Sheet 19%
Newport City Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Taffs Well Newport City
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 3 8
Draws 5 7
Losses 22 15
Goals Scored 1.13 1.2
Goals Conceded 2.67 1.83
Expected Goals (xG) 1.54 1.24
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 7, 2025 Cymru South
Taffs Well vs Newport City
0:1
Nov 22, 2024 Cymru South
Newport City vs Taffs Well
2:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Taffs Well Compare

Avg xG / game 1.18
Avg xA / game 0.77

Newport City Compare

Top Goalscorer Thompson M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.13
Avg xA / game 0.69

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Taffs Well 10 / 100
Newport City 83 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Taffs Well Newport City

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Newport City Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Newport City has conceded goals in 80% of their last 30 outings.

Taffs Well found the back of the net in 60% of recent matches (30 games).

These sides typically produce 2.50 goals when they meet.

Newport City lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

- VS Newport City
0 Goals Scored 1.38
0 Goals Conceded 1.88
0% Over 1.5 63%
0% Over 2.5 63%
0% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Taffs Well

(Home)
18 Oct
Cardiff Metropolitan University
5 : 1
Taffs Well
20 Sept
Taffs Well
2 : 1
Abertillery Excelsiors
04 Jul
Taffs Well
0 : 4
Caerau Ely
25 Jun
Taffs Well
4 : 1
Cwmbran Town
21 Jun
Taffs Well
1 : 5
Carmarthen Town
Page 1 of 6

Newport City

(Away)
25 Sept
Afan Lido
0 : 0
Newport City
28 Aug
Newport City
0 : 1
Ynyshir Albions
21 Aug
Newport City
0 : 1
Baglan Dragons
15 Aug
Pontardawe
0 : 4
Newport City
08 Aug
Newport City
1 : 2
Carmarthen Town
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Llanelli 30 18 10 2 64:25 64
2 Trethomas Bluebirds 30 17 8 5 53:33 59
3 Newport City 30 16 6 8 50:32 54
4 Trefelin 30 15 8 7 54:41 53
5 Pontypridd United 30 16 5 9 54:44 53
6 Cambrian United 30 13 11 6 50:38 47
7 Carmarthen Town 30 12 9 9 55:44 45
8 Baglan Dragons 30 11 10 9 44:34 43
9 Llantwit Major 30 11 10 9 37:34 43
10 Ammanford Town 30 11 3 16 47:50 36
11 Afan Lido 30 8 10 12 44:51 34
12 Caerau Ely 30 9 5 16 42:43 32
13 Cwmbran Celtic 30 9 3 18 39:62 30
14 Penrhiwceiber Rangers 30 7 7 16 30:57 28
15 Goytre Utd 30 6 5 19 41:72 23
16 Taffs Well 30 3 6 21 32:76 15
Promotion - Cymru Premier 2025/2026 (Main)