Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Tahiti vs Fiji

Australia & Oceania Australia & Oceania

OFC Nations Cup VFF Freshwater Stadium, Port Vila
Our Tip

Match Events

38'
Gonerau L.
40'
Dogalau E.
46'
Sub
Matarerega R. In: Baravilala F.
Out: Matarerega R.

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 2-1. This leg finished 2-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

51%
Tahiti
20%
Draws
29%
Fiji
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Tahiti

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Tahiti have won more games recently than Fiji.
  • 51% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • Tahiti have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Fiji, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 35.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 16%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69.4%
Tahiti Clean Sheet 20%
Fiji Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Tahiti Fiji
Matches Played 31 33
Wins 17 13
Draws 4 10
Losses 10 10
Goals Scored 2.16 1.88
Goals Conceded 1.16 1.48
Expected Goals (xG) 1.75 1.17
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 30, 2024 OFC Nations Cup
Tahiti vs Fiji
2:1
Jun 22, 2024 OFC Nations Cup
Fiji vs Tahiti
1:0
Nov 21, 2023 Pacific Games
Fiji vs Tahiti
0:0
Jul 8, 2019 Pacific Games
Tahiti vs Fiji
1:2
Jun 6, 2019 Friendly International
Fiji vs Tahiti
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Tahiti Compare

Top Goalscorer Tehau T.
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.35
Avg xA / game 0.88

Fiji Compare

Top Goalscorer Krishna R.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.65

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Tahiti 31 / 100
Fiji 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Tahiti Fiji

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Tahiti Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Tahiti's goal record stands at 71% scoring rate across 31 recent games.

Fiji let in goals in 70% of their last 33 matches.

H2H data points to 1.80 goals as a typical output.

Recent resilience: Tahiti stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Tahiti VS Fiji
1 Goals Scored 1
1.33 Goals Conceded 2.5
67% Over 1.5 75%
67% Over 2.5 63%
33% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Tahiti

(Home)
27 Sept
Cook Islands
1 : 3
Tahiti
21 Mar
New Caledonia
3 : 0
Tahiti
18 Nov
Tahiti
2 : 0
Vanuatu
15 Nov
Samoa
0 : 3
Tahiti
11 Oct
New Zealand
3 : 0
Tahiti
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Fiji

(Away)
27 Sept
Fiji
2 : 0
Papua New Guinea
21 Sept
Fiji
0 : 1
Vanuatu
18 Sept
Fiji
3 : 3
Solomon Islands
09 Jun
Vanuatu
2 : 2
Fiji
06 Jun
Vanuatu
2 : 1
Fiji
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Tournament Bracket & Draw

Semi-finals
New Zealand 5
Tahiti 0
Fiji 1
Vanuatu 2
Final
New Zealand 3
Vanuatu 0
Tahiti 2
Fiji 1