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Tahiti vs Samoa Prediction & H2H Stats

Australia & Oceania Australia & Oceania

OFC Nations Cup HFC Bank Stadium, Suva
Tahiti Logo

Tahiti

2 - 0
FT
Samoa Logo

Samoa

Our Tip

Match Events

4' Event
Degrumelle M.
25'
Wilson T. B.
28' Event
Tehau T.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 2-0. This leg finished 2-0.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

51%
Tahiti
15%
Draws
34%
Samoa
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Tahiti

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Tahiti have won more games recently than Samoa.
  • Model gives Tahiti a 51% chance of winning this.
  • Tahiti have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Tahiti, who have won 3 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Tahiti have taken 5 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 67%
Tahiti Clean Sheet 16%
Samoa Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Tahiti Samoa
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 15 11
Draws 4 1
Losses 11 18
Goals Scored 2.2 1.37
Goals Conceded 1.3 3.47
Expected Goals (xG) 1.81 1.44
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Nov 15, 2024 World Championship
Samoa vs Tahiti
0:3
Jun 16, 2024 OFC Nations Cup
Tahiti vs Samoa
2:0
Nov 27, 2023 Pacific Games
Tahiti vs Samoa
2:1
May 29, 2016 World Championship
Tahiti vs Samoa
4:0
Jun 1, 2012 World Championship
Samoa vs Tahiti
1:10

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Tahiti Compare

Top Goalscorer Degrumelle M.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Tehau T.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.39
Avg xA / game 0.91

Samoa Compare

Avg xG / game 1.31
Avg xA / game 0.8

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Tahiti 84 / 100
Samoa 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Tahiti Samoa

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Tahiti Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Samoa has conceded goals in 83% of their last 30 outings.

H2H data points to 4.60 goals as a typical output.

Tahiti scored in 70% of their last 30 games.

Solid form: Tahiti remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Tahiti VS Samoa
1.25 Goals Scored 1.5
1.38 Goals Conceded 2.38
88% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 63%
13% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Tahiti

(Home)
01 Oct
Cook Islands
3 : 2
Tahiti
27 Sept
Cook Islands
1 : 3
Tahiti
21 Mar
New Caledonia
3 : 0
Tahiti
18 Nov
Tahiti
2 : 0
Vanuatu
15 Nov
Samoa
0 : 3
Tahiti
Page 1 of 6

Samoa

(Away)
18 Nov
Samoa
0 : 8
New Zealand
15 Nov
Samoa
0 : 3
Tahiti
12 Oct
Vanuatu
4 : 1
Samoa
09 Sept
Tonga
1 : 2
Samoa
06 Sept
American Samoa
0 : 2
Samoa
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League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 New Zealand 2 2 0 0 7:0 6
2 Vanuatu 2 1 0 1 1:4 3
3 Solomon Islands 2 0 0 2 0:4 0
4 New Caledonia 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
Promotion - OFC Nations Cup (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Fiji 3 3 0 0 15:2 9
2 Tahiti 3 1 1 1 3:2 4
3 Papua New Guinea 3 1 1 1 4:7 4
4 Samoa 3 0 0 3 2:13 0
Promotion - OFC Nations Cup (Play Offs)