Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Tai Po vs Kitchee

Hong Kong Hong Kong

FA Cup 2025/2026 Tai Po Sports Ground, Hongkong
Sat, Mar 7, 2026
2 - 1
10:30 AM
Our Tip

Match Events

9' Event
Fernando
33' Event
Revilla A.
46'
Sub
Chan Siu-Kwan P. In: Chung Wai-Keung
Out: Chan Siu-Kwan P.

AI Match Summary

Tai Po in this FA Cup 2025/2026 tie, finishing 2-1. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

34%
Tai Po
20%
Draws
46%
Kitchee
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Kitchee

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

46% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Kitchee lately — more wins on the board than Tai Po.
  • 46% — that's where the model lands on Kitchee taking it.
  • Kitchee arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Tai Po, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 25%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 76.6%
Tai Po Clean Sheet 10%
Kitchee Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Tai Po Kitchee
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 18 19
Draws 3 6
Losses 10 5
Goals Scored 2.1 2.33
Goals Conceded 1.58 1.23
Expected Goals (xG) 1.88 1.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 2, 2026 Premier League
Tai Po vs Kitchee
3:0
Mar 7, 2026 FA Cup
Tai Po vs Kitchee
2:1
Jan 25, 2026 Premier League
Kitchee vs Tai Po
4:2
Oct 18, 2025 Premier League
Tai Po vs Kitchee
1:1
May 17, 2025 Premier League
Kitchee vs Tai Po
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Tai Po Compare

Top Goalscorer Fernando
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.45
Avg xA / game 0.94

Kitchee Compare

Top Goalscorer Revilla A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.71
Avg xA / game 1.04

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Tai Po 22 / 100
Kitchee 47 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Tai Po Kitchee

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Kitchee Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Tai Po scored in 90% of their last 31 games.

Kitchee let in goals in 60% of their last 30 matches.

These sides typically produce 3.00 goals when they meet.

Solid form: Tai Po remains unbeaten in 2 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Tai Po VS Kitchee
2.38 Goals Scored 2.25
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.38
100% Over 1.5 75%
75% Over 2.5 75%
50% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

Tai Po

(Home)
17 Sept
Adelaide Utd
3 : 0
Tai Po
12 Sept
Tai Po
1 : 2
Hong Kong FC
05 Sept
Tai Po
3 : 2
Hong Kong Rangers
30 Aug
Tai Po
4 : 1
Eastern AA
23 Aug
North District
2 : 0
Tai Po
Page 1 of 7

Kitchee

(Away)
26 Sept
Eastern AA
3 : 1
Kitchee
17 Sept
Kitchee
0 : 0
Gangwon
12 Sept
Southern District
1 : 3
Kitchee
06 Sept
Kitchee
4 : 1
Eastern District
29 Aug
North District
0 : 0
Kitchee
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/8-finals
Tai Po -
TBD -
TBD -
Kitchee -
Hong Kong Rangers -
TBD -
Lee Man Warriors 3
Kowloon City 0
Eastern AA -
TBD -
TBD -
Eastern District -
Hong Kong FC -
TBD -
Southern District 1
North District 3
Quarter-finals
Tai Po 2
Kitchee 1
Hong Kong Rangers 4
Lee Man Warriors 3
Eastern AA 0
Eastern District 1
Hong Kong FC 1
North District 3
Semi-finals
Tai Po 2
Hong Kong Rangers 0
Eastern District 3
North District 2
Final
Tai Po 2
Eastern District 1