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Tai Po vs Kitchee

Hong Kong Hong Kong

FA Cup Tai Po Sports Ground, Hongkong
Sat, Mar 7, 2026
2 - 1
10:30 AM
Our Tip

Match Events

9' Event
Fernando
33' Event
Revilla A.
46'
Sub
Chan Siu-Kwan P. In: Chung Wai-Keung
Out: Chan Siu-Kwan P.

AI Match Summary

Tai Po in this FA Cup tie, finishing 2-1. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

90%
Tai Po
6%
Draws
4%
Kitchee
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Tai Po

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Tai Po lately — more wins on the board than Kitchee.
  • 90% — that's where the model lands on Tai Po taking it.
  • Tai Po have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Tai Po, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 38%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 76.2%
Tai Po Clean Sheet 18%
Kitchee Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Tai Po Kitchee
Matches Played 37 30
Wins 23 19
Draws 6 6
Losses 8 5
Goals Scored 2.25 1.75
Goals Conceded 0.88 1.38
Expected Goals (xG) 2.25 1.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.88 1.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 2, 2026 Premier League
Tai Po vs Kitchee
3:0
Mar 7, 2026 FA Cup
Tai Po vs Kitchee
2:1
Jan 25, 2026 Premier League
Kitchee vs Tai Po
4:2
Oct 18, 2025 Premier League
Tai Po vs Kitchee
1:1
May 17, 2025 Premier League
Kitchee vs Tai Po
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Tai Po Compare

Top Goalscorer Fernando
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.73
Avg xA / game 1.13

Kitchee Compare

Top Goalscorer Revilla A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.59
Avg xA / game 0.97

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Tai Po 85 / 100
Kitchee 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Tai Po Kitchee

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick TAI Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Tai Po scored in 92% of their last 37 games.

Tai Po went unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 games.

Kitchee's defensive record shows goals conceded in 60% of 30 matches.

Historical meetings average 3.00 goals per match.

Scoring Trends

Tai Po VS Kitchee
2.25 Goals Scored 1.75
0.88 Goals Conceded 1.38
75% Over 1.5 88%
63% Over 2.5 75%
38% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Tai Po

(Home)
30 May
Tai Po
2 : 1
Eastern District
23 May
Tai Po
2 : 0
Hong Kong Rangers
17 May
Lee Man Warriors
2 : 3
Tai Po
09 May
Eastern AA
2 : 4
Tai Po
02 May
Tai Po
3 : 0
Kitchee
Page 1 of 8

Kitchee

(Away)
29 Jul
Prime Bangkok
0 : 4
Kitchee
17 May
Kitchee
4 : 4
Eastern AA
02 May
Tai Po
3 : 0
Kitchee
25 Apr
North District
2 : 2
Kitchee
18 Apr
Kitchee
1 : 4
Lee Man Warriors
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/8-finals
Tai Po-
TBD-
TBD-
Kitchee-
Hong Kong Rangers-
TBD-
Lee Man Warriors3
Kowloon City0
Eastern AA-
TBD-
TBD-
Eastern District-
Hong Kong FC-
TBD-
Southern District1
North District3
Quarter-finals
Tai Po2
Kitchee1
Hong Kong Rangers4
Lee Man Warriors3
Eastern AA0
Eastern District1
Hong Kong FC1
North District3
Semi-finals
Tai Po2
Hong Kong Rangers0
Eastern District3
North District2
Final
Tai Po2
Eastern District1