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Tajikistan vs Afghanistan

World World

Friendly International 2024 Republican central stadium, Dushanbe
Our Tip

Match Events

8'
Sub
Azizi O. In: Mottaghian K.
Out: Azizi O.
11' Event
Dzhuraboev A.
Assist: Dzhalilov A.
24'
Sub
Umarbaev P. In: Soirov R.
Out: Umarbaev P.

AI Match Summary

The Friendly International 2024 game between Tajikistan and Afghanistan finished 3-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Tajikistan.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

47%
Tajikistan
30%
Draws
23%
Afghanistan
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Tajikistan

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Tajikistan come out ahead of Afghanistan on wins alone.
  • Model gives Tajikistan a 47% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Friendly International 2024 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Tajikistan have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 63%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28%
Tajikistan Clean Sheet 68%
Afghanistan Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Tajikistan Afghanistan
Matches Played 27 28
Wins 13 4
Draws 5 8
Losses 9 16
Goals Scored 1.52 0.54
Goals Conceded 1.11 1.79
Expected Goals (xG) 1.56 0.56
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 1, 2025 CAFA Nations Cup
Afghanistan vs Tajikistan
0:2
Nov 19, 2024 Friendly International
Tajikistan vs Afghanistan
3:1
Jun 7, 2019 Friendly International
Tajikistan vs Afghanistan
1:1
Nov 13, 2016 Friendly International
Tajikistan vs Afghanistan
1:0
May 4, 2014 Friendly International
Tajikistan vs Afghanistan
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Tajikistan Compare

Top Goalscorer Dzhuraboev A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Samiev S.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.2
Avg xA / game 0.78

Afghanistan Compare

Top Goalscorer Asekzai J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.51
Avg xA / game 0.31

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Tajikistan 95 / 100
Afghanistan 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Tajikistan Afghanistan

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Tajikistan Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Tajikistan scored in 70% of their last 27 outings.

Defensive concern: Afghanistan conceded in 68% of 28 recent games.

These sides typically produce 2.00 goals when they meet.

Solid form: Tajikistan remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Tajikistan VS Afghanistan
2.13 Goals Scored 0.5
0.63 Goals Conceded 1
88% Over 1.5 38%
50% Over 2.5 25%
38% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Tajikistan

(Home)
23 Sept
Azerbaijan
1 : 0
Tajikistan
09 Jun
Tajikistan
1 : 1
India
05 Jun
Tajikistan
3 : 1
India
31 Mar
Tajikistan
1 : 1
Philippines
18 Nov
Timor-Leste
0 : 5
Tajikistan
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Afghanistan

(Away)
10 Jun
Pakistan
2 : 0
Afghanistan
07 Jun
Afghanistan
0 : 2
Pakistan
04 Jun
Afghanistan
0 : 0
Bangladesh U23
01 Jun
Maldives
0 : 1
Afghanistan
31 Mar
Syria
5 : 1
Afghanistan
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