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Tajikistan vs Philippines

World World

Kings Cup (Thailand) 2024 Tinsulanond Stadium, Songkhla
Our Tip

Match Events

28'
Sub
Olimzoda F. In: Khamrokulov N.
Out: Olimzoda F.
39'
Holtmann G.
47' Event
Holtmann G.
Assist: Kristensen B.

AI Match Summary

Philippines in this Kings Cup (Thailand) 2024 tie, finishing 0-3. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

52%
Tajikistan
20%
Draws
28%
Philippines
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Tajikistan

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

52% / Medium Confidence
  • Tajikistan have won more games recently than Philippines.
  • Win probability leans Tajikistan's way, sitting at 70%.
  • Tajikistan have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Philippines, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 33.6%
Tajikistan Clean Sheet 68%
Philippines Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Tajikistan Philippines
Matches Played 27 33
Wins 13 12
Draws 5 7
Losses 9 14
Goals Scored 1.52 1.61
Goals Conceded 1.11 1.52
Expected Goals (xG) 1.75 1.81
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 31, 2026 Asian Cup
Tajikistan vs Philippines
1:1
Jun 10, 2025 Asian Cup
Philippines vs Tajikistan
2:2
Oct 14, 2024 Kings Cup (Thailand)
Tajikistan vs Philippines
0:3
Sep 8, 2024 Merdeka Cup
Tajikistan vs Philippines
1:0
Oct 9, 2018 Bangabandhu Gold Cup
Philippines vs Tajikistan
0:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Tajikistan Compare

Avg xG / game 1.35
Avg xA / game 0.88

Philippines Compare

Top Goalscorer Holtmann G.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Tabinas J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.65
Avg xA / game 1.01

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Tajikistan 77 / 100
Philippines 14 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Tajikistan Philippines

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Tajikistan Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Philippines conceded in 88% of 33 recent games.

Tajikistan went unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 games.

Tajikistan found the back of the net in 70% of recent matches (27 games).

Historical meetings average 2.40 goals per match.

Scoring Trends

Tajikistan VS Philippines
2.25 Goals Scored 3.13
0.5 Goals Conceded 1.25
88% Over 1.5 100%
50% Over 2.5 75%
38% Over 3.5 75%

Recent Form & Match History

Tajikistan

(Home)
09 Jun
Tajikistan
1 : 1
India
05 Jun
Tajikistan
3 : 1
India
31 Mar
Tajikistan
1 : 1
Philippines
18 Nov
Timor-Leste
0 : 5
Tajikistan
14 Oct
Maldives
0 : 3
Tajikistan
Page 1 of 6

Philippines

(Away)
08 Aug
Malaysia
1 : 0
Philippines
04 Aug
Philippines
0 : 1
Thailand
01 Aug
Laos
1 : 4
Philippines
28 Jul
Philippines
1 : 4
Myanmar
09 Jun
Philippines
5 : 1
Myanmar
Page 1 of 7

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Semi-finals
Syria 1
Tajikistan 0
Thailand 3
Philippines 1
Final
Syria 1
Thailand 2
Tajikistan 0
Philippines 3