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Stadium Background

Tajikistan vs Timor-Leste

Asia Asia

Asian Cup Pamir Stadium
Our Tip

Match Events

3' Event
Khanonov V.
Assist: Dzhuraboev Z.
32'
Zenivio
48'
Umarbaev P.

AI Match Summary

The Asian Cup game between Tajikistan and Timor-Leste finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Tajikistan.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

90%
Tajikistan
6%
Draws
4%
Timor-Leste
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Tajikistan

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Timor-Leste haven't matched Tajikistan's recent run of results.
  • Win probability leans Tajikistan's way, sitting at 90%.
  • Knockout football tends to sharpen focus — no second leg to fall back on.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 26.8%
Tajikistan Clean Sheet 68%
Timor-Leste Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Tajikistan Timor-Leste
Matches Played 28 29
Wins 13 6
Draws 6 2
Losses 9 21
Goals Scored 1.75 1.25
Goals Conceded 0.88 1.88
Expected Goals (xG) 1.75 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.88 1.88

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Nov 18, 2025 Asian Cup
Timor-Leste vs Tajikistan
0:5
Mar 25, 2025 Asian Cup
Tajikistan vs Timor-Leste
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Tajikistan Compare

Top Goalscorer Khanonov V.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.35
Avg xA / game 0.88

Timor-Leste Compare

Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Tajikistan 95 / 100
Timor-Leste 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Tajikistan Timor-Leste

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick TAJ Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 4:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Tajikistan has registered 5 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Tajikistan found the back of the net in 68% of recent matches (28 games).

Timor-Leste has conceded goals in 69% of their last 29 outings.

H2H data points to 3.00 goals as a typical output.

Scoring Trends

Tajikistan VS Timor-Leste
1.75 Goals Scored 1.25
0.88 Goals Conceded 1.88
88% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 75%
25% Over 3.5 50%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Tajikistan642014:314
2Philippines642016:614
3Maldives61053:133
4Timor-Leste61054:153
PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Yemen642020:114
2Lebanon641114:213
3Bhutan61144:164
4Brunei61053:223
PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Singapore64208:414
2Hong Kong62228:88
3Bangladesh61236:85
4India61234:65
PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Thailand650116:515
2Turkmenistan640211:712
3Sri Lanka63038:99
4Chinese Taipei60065:190
PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Syria660021:218
2Myanmar64028:1112
3Afghanistan60244:112
4Pakistan60242:112
PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Vietnam660017:218
2Malaysia630310:109
3Laos62044:166
4Nepal61055:83