Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Tallinna Kalev vs Elva

Estonia Estonia

Esiliiga Kadrioru Staadion, Tallinn
Our Tip

Match Events

27' Event
Gusarov A.
Assist: Ilves R.

AI Match Summary

The Esiliiga game between Tallinna Kalev and Elva finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Tallinna Kalev.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

12%
Tallinna Kalev
30%
Draws
58%
Elva
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Elva

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

58% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Elva come out ahead of Tallinna Kalev on wins alone.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75.4%
Tallinna Kalev Clean Sheet 20%
Elva Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Tallinna Kalev Elva
Matches Played 28 29
Wins 11 14
Draws 7 5
Losses 10 10
Goals Scored 2.25 1.69
Goals Conceded 1.75 1.41
Expected Goals (xG) 1.44 1.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 15, 2026 Esiliiga
Tallinna Kalev vs Elva
1:0
May 24, 2026 Esiliiga
Elva vs Tallinna Kalev
3:1
Apr 9, 2026 Esiliiga
Tallinna Kalev vs Elva
2:1
Oct 30, 2025 Estonian Cup
Elva vs Tallinna Kalev
1:2
Jan 29, 2023 Club Friendly
Elva vs Tallinna Kalev
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Tallinna Kalev Compare

Top Goalscorer Gusarov A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.11
Avg xA / game 0.72

Elva Compare

Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.59

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Tallinna Kalev 32 / 100
Elva 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Tallinna Kalev Elva

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Elva Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Tallinna Kalev scored in 93% of their last 28 games.

Elva's defensive record shows goals conceded in 71% of 28 matches.

Games between these two average 2.20 goals.

Tallinna Kalev has registered 2 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Tallinna Kalev VS Elva
2 Goals Scored 0.63
1.5 Goals Conceded 0.88
88% Over 1.5 25%
63% Over 2.5 25%
38% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Tallinna Kalev

(Home)
18 Sept
Tallinna Kalev
2 : 2
Flora Tallinn U21
10 Sept
Nomme Utd U21
2 : 1
Tallinna Kalev
05 Sept
Tallinna Kalev
1 : 1
Tartu JK Welco
29 Aug
Flora Tallinn U21
5 : 0
Tallinna Kalev
24 Aug
Tallinna Kalev
1 : 3
Maardu Linnameeskond
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Elva

(Away)
19 Sept
Elva
1 : 1
FC Tallinn
13 Sept
Flora Tallinn U21
1 : 2
Elva
10 Sept
Viimsi JK
5 : 0
Elva
06 Sept
Elva
1 : 0
Kalju U21
03 Sept
Nomme Utd U21
0 : 1
Elva
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Tartu JK Welco 30 19 5 6 81:39 62
2 Viimsi JK 30 15 5 10 56:31 50
3 Flora Tallinn U21 30 14 6 10 72:53 48
4 Elva 30 14 6 10 47:44 48
5 Maardu Linnameeskond 27 12 5 10 45:55 41
6 Levadia U21 29 13 2 14 60:55 41
7 Tallinna Kalev 29 10 7 12 52:55 37
8 Nomme Utd U21 29 9 6 14 47:60 33
9 FC Tallinn 29 7 8 14 35:63 29
10 Kalju U21 29 6 4 19 36:76 22
Promotion - Meistriliiga 2027 (Main)
Promotion - Meistriliiga (Relegation)
Relegation - Esiliiga (Relegation)
Relegation - Esiliiga B 2027 (Main)