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Tampa Bay vs FC Naples

USA USA

USL Cup Al Lang Stadium
Sat, Jul 11, 2026
2 - 0
11:30 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Tampa Bay play FC Naples in the USL Cup. Tampa Bay are favorites here. Recently, Tampa Bay averaged 1.9 goals scored and 0.79 conceded. FC Naples averaged 1.15 goals scored and 1.33 conceded. In past meetings, Tampa Bay won 3, FC Naples won 0, and they drew 0. Their last match on Feb 18, 2026 ended 3:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 2.13 for Tampa Bay and 0.88 for FC Naples. This points to a Tampa Bay double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

58%
Tampa Bay
15%
Draws
27%
FC Naples
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Tampa Bay

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

84% / High Confidence
  • Tampa Bay picked up more points recently compared to FC Naples.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (2.13 vs 0.88 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 90%
Over 1.5 Goals 72%
Over 2.5 Goals 45%
Over 3.5 Goals 27%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 37%
Tampa Bay Clean Sheet 25%
FC Naples Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 65%
Second Half Goal 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Tampa Bay FC Naples
Matches Played 29 33
Wins 19 13
Draws 7 3
Losses 3 17
Goals Scored 1.9 1.15
Goals Conceded 0.79 1.33
Expected Goals (xG) 2.00 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.50 2.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 18, 2026 Club Friendly
Tampa Bay vs FC Naples
3:0
Jul 4, 2025 USL Cup
FC Naples vs Tampa Bay
0:2
Apr 16, 2025 US Open Cup
FC Naples vs Tampa Bay
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Tampa Bay Compare

Top Goalscorer Henderlong K.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Conway E.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 1

FC Naples Compare

Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Tampa Bay 57 / 100
FC Naples 26 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Tampa Bay FC Naples

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Tampa Bay Win (1)
Secondary Pick Tampa Bay & Under 3.5
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +16%
2.00
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +15.2%
2.56
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Tampa Bay attacking → ← attacking FC Naples

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Tampa Bay scored in 93% of their last 29 games.

FC Naples let in goals in 67% of their last 33 matches.

Games between these two average 2.67 goals.

Tampa Bay went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

FC Naples lost 5 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

64 Points in last 5 42
2.00 Goals expected (xG) 1.25
0.50 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 2.25

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Sacramento Republic33007:18
2Spokane Velocity32013:56
3Athletic Club Boise32017:65
4Oakland Roots31023:34
5Monterey Bay31026:73
6Las Vegas Lights30031:51
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Colorado Springs33007:19
2El Paso Locomotive32015:36
3New Mexico32016:56
4AV Alta FC31023:53
5Phoenix Rising31022:63
6Orange County SC30033:60
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1San Antonio FC33004:18
2Birmingham Legion32015:26
3One Knoxville32014:34
4FC Tulsa31023:44
5Corpus Christi FC31021:43
6Chattanooga Red Wolves30032:52
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Louisville City33009:28
2Indy Eleven43017:47
3Lexington32016:46
4Union Omaha32017:86
5Detroit City31022:35
6Fort Wayne30035:101
7Forward Madison30032:70
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Hartford Athletic32016:27
2Brooklyn FC32018:36
3Rhode Island32015:25
4Portland Hearts of Pine31025:94
5New York Cosmos31024:93
6Westchester SC31025:82
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Charleston33007:18
2Charlotte Independence33005:28
3Pittsburgh Riverhounds31024:35
4Loudoun United31024:53
5Greenville Triumph31023:53
6Richmond Kickers30031:80
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Tampa Bay33008:19
2Miami FC32016:56
3Sporting Jax41033:54
4Sarasota Paradise31022:43
5FC Naples31023:72