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Tampa Bay Sun W vs Carolina Ascent W - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

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USL Super League Women Riverfront Stadium, Tampa, FL
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AI Match Summary

The USL Super League Women game between Tampa Bay Sun W and Carolina Ascent W finished 0-3, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Carolina Ascent W.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
Tampa Bay Sun W
30%
Draws
39%
Carolina Ascent W
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Carolina Ascent W

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

39% / Low Confidence
  • Tampa Bay Sun W haven't matched Carolina Ascent W's recent run of results.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 44%.
  • Regular USL Super League Women form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Carolina Ascent W have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.200000000000003%
Tampa Bay Sun W Clean Sheet 15%
Carolina Ascent W Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Tampa Bay Sun W Carolina Ascent W
Matches Played 28 29
Wins 7 19
Draws 9 3
Losses 12 7
Goals Scored 1.07 1.34
Goals Conceded 1.57 0.72
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 1.56
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 10, 2026 USL Super League Women
Tampa Bay Sun W vs Carolina Ascent W
0:3
Aug 29, 2026 USL Super League Women
Carolina Ascent W vs Tampa Bay Sun W
1:2
Apr 25, 2026 USL Super League Women
Tampa Bay Sun W vs Carolina Ascent W
1:2
Apr 5, 2026 USL Super League Women
Tampa Bay Sun W vs Carolina Ascent W
1:2
Mar 13, 2026 USL Super League Women
Carolina Ascent W vs Tampa Bay Sun W
1:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Tampa Bay Sun W 35 / 100
Carolina Ascent W 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Tampa Bay Sun W Carolina Ascent W

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Carolina Ascent W Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Tampa Bay Sun W found the back of the net in 71% of recent matches (28 games).

Games between these two average 2.60 goals.

Tampa Bay Sun W has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Defensive concern: Carolina Ascent W conceded in 48% of 29 recent games.

Scoring Trends

Tampa Bay Sun W VS Carolina Ascent W
1.13 Goals Scored 2
1.13 Goals Conceded 0.88
75% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 75%
13% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Tampa Bay Sun W

(Home)
04 Oct
Tampa Bay Sun W
1 : 1
Lexington W
18 Sept
DC Power W
1 : 1
Tampa Bay Sun W
12 Sept
Tampa Bay Sun W
2 : 1
Fort Lauderdale United W
29 Aug
Carolina Ascent W
1 : 2
Tampa Bay Sun W
22 Aug
Sporting Jax W
3 : 2
Tampa Bay Sun W
Page 1 of 6

Carolina Ascent W

(Away)
26 Sept
Carolina Ascent W
3 : 3
Sporting Jax W
19 Sept
Carolina Ascent W
1 : 0
Brooklyn W
11 Sept
Lexington W
0 : 1
Carolina Ascent W
05 Sept
Carolina Ascent W
3 : 0
Fort Lauderdale United W
29 Aug
Carolina Ascent W
1 : 2
Tampa Bay Sun W
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Carolina Ascent W 7 5 1 1 13:6 16
2 DC Power W 7 3 2 2 11:8 11
3 Sporting Jax W 7 3 2 2 12:10 11
4 Lexington W 6 3 1 2 9:4 10
5 Dallas Trinity W 7 3 1 3 9:11 10
6 Tampa Bay Sun W 6 2 3 1 9:8 9
7 Brooklyn W 7 2 0 5 5:14 6
8 Fort Lauderdale United W 7 1 0 6 4:11 3
Promotion - USL Super League Women (Play Offs)