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Tampa Bay Sun W vs Lexington W - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

USA USA

USL Super League Women Riverfront Stadium, Tampa, FL
Tampa Bay Sun W Logo

Tampa Bay Sun W

1 - 1
FT
Lexington W Logo

Lexington W

Our Tip

Match Events

31' Event
Connors S.
41' Event
Mccain A.
Assist: Elizabeth Brown A.
46'
Sub
Waldeck-Zierenberg T. In: Zschuppe E.
Out: Waldeck-Zierenberg T.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The USL Super League Women game between Tampa Bay Sun W and Lexington W finished 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

37%
Tampa Bay Sun W
30%
Draws
33%
Lexington W
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Tampa Bay Sun W

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

30% / Low Confidence
  • Lexington W carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model gives Tampa Bay Sun W a 36% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.8%
Tampa Bay Sun W Clean Sheet 16%
Lexington W Clean Sheet 17%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Tampa Bay Sun W Lexington W
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 7 16
Draws 9 7
Losses 13 5
Goals Scored 1.03 1.68
Goals Conceded 1.62 0.82
Expected Goals (xG) 0.88 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 4, 2026 USL Super League Women
Tampa Bay Sun W vs Lexington W
1:1
May 16, 2026 USL Super League Women
Lexington W vs Tampa Bay Sun W
1:0
Apr 18, 2026 USL Super League Women
Lexington W vs Tampa Bay Sun W
4:0
Nov 23, 2025 USL Super League Women
Tampa Bay Sun W vs Lexington W
1:1
May 10, 2025 USL Super League Women
Lexington W vs Tampa Bay Sun W
0:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Tampa Bay Sun W Compare

Top Goalscorer Connors S.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.44

Lexington W Compare

Top Goalscorer Mccain A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Tampa Bay Sun W 36 / 100
Lexington W 34 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Tampa Bay Sun W Lexington W

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Tampa Bay Sun W found the back of the net in 69% of recent matches (29 games).

Lexington W has conceded goals in 61% of their last 28 outings.

H2H data points to 2.40 goals as a typical output.

Solid form: Tampa Bay Sun W remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Tampa Bay Sun W VS Lexington W
1.13 Goals Scored 1.63
1.38 Goals Conceded 0.63
88% Over 1.5 63%
38% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Tampa Bay Sun W

(Home)
10 Oct
Tampa Bay Sun W
0 : 3
Carolina Ascent W
04 Oct
Tampa Bay Sun W
1 : 1
Lexington W
18 Sept
DC Power W
1 : 1
Tampa Bay Sun W
12 Sept
Tampa Bay Sun W
2 : 1
Fort Lauderdale United W
29 Aug
Carolina Ascent W
1 : 2
Tampa Bay Sun W
Page 1 of 6

Lexington W

(Away)
04 Oct
Tampa Bay Sun W
1 : 1
Lexington W
25 Sept
Lexington W
3 : 0
Dallas Trinity W
20 Sept
Sporting Jax W
0 : 1
Lexington W
11 Sept
Lexington W
0 : 1
Carolina Ascent W
29 Aug
Lexington W
1 : 2
DC Power W
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Carolina Ascent W 8 6 1 1 16:6 19
2 Sporting Jax W 7 3 2 2 12:10 11
3 Dallas Trinity W 8 3 2 3 10:12 11
4 DC Power W 7 3 2 2 11:8 11
5 Lexington W 6 3 1 2 9:4 10
6 Tampa Bay Sun W 7 2 3 2 9:11 9
7 Brooklyn W 8 2 1 5 6:15 7
8 Fort Lauderdale United W 7 1 0 6 4:11 3
Promotion - USL Super League Women (Play Offs)