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Tampa Bay vs Louisville City - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

USA USA

USL Cup Al Lang Stadium, St. Petersburg, FL
Tampa Bay Logo

Tampa Bay

Wed, Aug 12, 2026
0 - 1
11:00 PM
Louisville City Logo

Louisville City

Our Tip

Match Events

20'
Davila T.
46'
Sub
Antley C. In: Becker P.
Out: Antley C.
46'
Sub
Perez L. In: Micaletto M.
Out: Perez L.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 0-1. This leg finished 0-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

33%
Tampa Bay
20%
Draws
47%
Louisville City
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Louisville City

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

20% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Tampa Bay lately — more wins on the board than Louisville City.
  • Win probability leans Tampa Bay's way, sitting at 42%.
  • Tampa Bay have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Louisville City, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.8%
Tampa Bay Clean Sheet 20%
Louisville City Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Tampa Bay Louisville City
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 16 14
Draws 7 6
Losses 6 9
Goals Scored 1.76 1.66
Goals Conceded 0.93 1.34
Expected Goals (xG) 1.31 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 12, 2026 USL Cup
Tampa Bay vs Louisville City
0:1
Aug 2, 2026 USL Championship
Tampa Bay vs Louisville City
5:4
May 30, 2026 USL Championship
Louisville City vs Tampa Bay
0:2
Jun 8, 2025 USL Championship
Louisville City vs Tampa Bay
2:1
Apr 19, 2025 USL Championship
Tampa Bay vs Louisville City
1:2

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Tampa Bay 42 / 100
Louisville City 36 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Tampa Bay Louisville City

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Tampa Bay scored in 83% of their last 29 games.

H2H data points to 3.60 goals as a typical output.

Louisville City let in goals in 69% of their last 29 matches.

Recent resilience: Tampa Bay stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Tampa Bay VS Louisville City
1.38 Goals Scored 1.38
0.88 Goals Conceded 1.25
63% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 63%
38% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Tampa Bay

(Home)
10 Oct
Indy Eleven
1 : 3
Tampa Bay
03 Oct
Tampa Bay
1 : 2
Miami FC
27 Sept
San Antonio FC
0 : 0
Tampa Bay
19 Sept
Tampa Bay
4 : 0
Birmingham Legion
12 Sept
Hartford Athletic
3 : 1
Tampa Bay
Page 1 of 6

Louisville City

(Away)
10 Oct
Charleston
0 : 2
Louisville City
04 Oct
Hartford Athletic
0 : 1
Louisville City
25 Sept
Hartford Athletic
2 : 2
Louisville City
19 Sept
Louisville City
2 : 1
Loudoun United
12 Sept
Louisville City
1 : 2
El Paso Locomotive
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Quarter-finals
Charlotte Independence 2
Hartford Athletic 4
Spokane Velocity 1
Colorado Springs 2
San Antonio FC 2
Miami FC 1
Tampa Bay 0
Louisville City 1
Semi-finals
Hartford Athletic 2
Colorado Springs 1
San Antonio FC 0
Louisville City 1
Final
Hartford Athletic 0
Louisville City 1