Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Tanzania Prisons vs Mbeya City

Tanzania Tanzania

Ligi Kuu Bara 2025/2026 Sokoine Stadium, Mbeya
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Ligi Kuu Bara 2025/2026 tie, finishing 0-0. Extra time or penalties follow.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%
Tanzania Prisons
44%
Draws
20%
Mbeya City
Draw rate projection: 44% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

71% / Medium Confidence
  • Tanzania Prisons have won more games recently than Mbeya City.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 44%.
  • Tanzania Prisons have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Mbeya City, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 63%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 27.200000000000003%
Tanzania Prisons Clean Sheet 24%
Mbeya City Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Tanzania Prisons Mbeya City
Matches Played 33 30
Wins 10 7
Draws 6 9
Losses 17 14
Goals Scored 1.5 0.75
Goals Conceded 1.13 1.13
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 0.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.13 1.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 8, 2026 Ligi Kuu Bara
Tanzania Prisons vs Mbeya City
0:0
Jul 5, 2026 Ligi Kuu Bara
Mbeya City vs Tanzania Prisons
2:0
May 4, 2026 Ligi Kuu Bara
Tanzania Prisons vs Mbeya City
1:2
Oct 21, 2025 Ligi Kuu Bara
Mbeya City vs Tanzania Prisons
1:2
Dec 25, 2022 Ligi Kuu Bara
Mbeya City vs Tanzania Prisons
1:2

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Tanzania Prisons 37 / 100
Mbeya City 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Tanzania Prisons Mbeya City

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick MBE Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Mbeya City let in goals in 70% of their last 30 matches.

H2H data points to 2.20 goals as a typical output.

Solid form: Tanzania Prisons remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Tanzania Prisons scored in 48% of their last 33 games.

Scoring Trends

Tanzania Prisons VS Mbeya City
1.5 Goals Scored 0.75
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.13
63% Over 1.5 63%
50% Over 2.5 13%
38% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Tanzania Prisons

(Home)
16 Jul
Tanzania Prisons
1 : 0
Polisi Tanzania
12 Jul
Polisi Tanzania
4 : 0
Tanzania Prisons
08 Jul
Tanzania Prisons
0 : 0
Mbeya City
05 Jul
Mbeya City
2 : 0
Tanzania Prisons
30 Jun
Mashujaa
0 : 1
Tanzania Prisons
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Mbeya City

(Away)
08 Jul
Tanzania Prisons
0 : 0
Mbeya City
05 Jul
Mbeya City
2 : 0
Tanzania Prisons
30 Jun
Mbeya City
0 : 0
TRA United
27 Jun
Dodoma Jiji
1 : 1
Mbeya City
24 Jun
Pamba
0 : 2
Mbeya City
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Tournament Bracket & Draw

Semi-finals
Tanzania Prisons0
Mbeya City2
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
Polisi Tanzania7
Mbeya Kwanza1
Final
Mbeya City-
TBD-
Tanzania Prisons1
Polisi Tanzania4