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Tanzania Prisons vs Mbeya City Prediction & H2H Stats

Tanzania Tanzania

Ligi Kuu Bara 2025/2026 Sokoine Stadium, Mbeya
Our Tip

Match Events

18' Event
Ambokile E.
33' Event
Martin E.
49'
Maranyingi B.

AI Match Summary

The Ligi Kuu Bara 2025/2026 game between Tanzania Prisons and Mbeya City finished 1-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Mbeya City.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

33%
Tanzania Prisons
20%
Draws
47%
Mbeya City
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Mbeya City

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Mbeya City carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Win probability leans Mbeya City's way, sitting at 50%.
  • Regular Ligi Kuu Bara 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 27.200000000000003%
Tanzania Prisons Clean Sheet 21%
Mbeya City Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Tanzania Prisons Mbeya City
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 8 9
Draws 6 9
Losses 16 11
Goals Scored 0.7 0.9
Goals Conceded 1.47 1.28
Expected Goals (xG) 0.69 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 8, 2026 Ligi Kuu Bara
Tanzania Prisons vs Mbeya City
0:0
Jul 5, 2026 Ligi Kuu Bara
Mbeya City vs Tanzania Prisons
2:0
May 4, 2026 Ligi Kuu Bara
Tanzania Prisons vs Mbeya City
1:2
Oct 21, 2025 Ligi Kuu Bara
Mbeya City vs Tanzania Prisons
1:2
Dec 25, 2022 Ligi Kuu Bara
Mbeya City vs Tanzania Prisons
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Tanzania Prisons Compare

Top Goalscorer Martin E.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.53
Avg xA / game 0.34

Mbeya City Compare

Top Goalscorer Ambokile E.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Tanzania Prisons 24 / 100
Mbeya City 59 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Tanzania Prisons Mbeya City

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Mbeya City Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Mbeya City conceded in 62% of 29 recent games.

Historical meetings average 2.20 goals per match.

Tanzania Prisons has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Tanzania Prisons found the back of the net in 47% of recent matches (30 games).

Scoring Trends

Tanzania Prisons VS Mbeya City
1 Goals Scored 0.88
1.38 Goals Conceded 0.38
63% Over 1.5 50%
50% Over 2.5 0%
38% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Tanzania Prisons

(Home)
16 Jul
Tanzania Prisons
1 : 0
Polisi Tanzania
12 Jul
Polisi Tanzania
4 : 0
Tanzania Prisons
08 Jul
Tanzania Prisons
0 : 0
Mbeya City
05 Jul
Mbeya City
2 : 0
Tanzania Prisons
30 Jun
Mashujaa
0 : 1
Tanzania Prisons
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Mbeya City

(Away)
12 Sept
Polisi Tanzania
2 : 0
Mbeya City
04 Sept
TRA United
0 : 0
Mbeya City
28 Aug
Fountain Gate
0 : 2
Mbeya City
23 Aug
Mbeya City
2 : 1
Mashujaa
19 Aug
Mbeya City
2 : 0
Dodoma Jiji
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Young Africans 30 23 6 1 71:9 75
2 Simba 30 22 7 1 54:11 73
3 Azam 30 18 10 2 46:12 64
4 Singida Black Stars 30 15 5 10 47:35 50
5 TRA United 30 11 10 9 33:28 43
6 JKT Tanzania 30 10 12 8 30:33 42
7 Pamba 30 9 9 12 32:35 36
8 Coastal Union 30 9 9 12 31:37 36
9 Dodoma Jiji 30 8 11 11 25:36 35
10 Namungo 30 7 13 10 25:32 34
11 Mashujaa 30 7 12 11 15:27 33
12 Fountain Gate 30 9 6 15 25:44 33
13 Tanzania Prisons 30 9 5 16 23:41 32
14 Mbeya City 30 7 9 14 24:41 30
15 Mtibwa Sugar 30 6 9 15 25:48 27
16 Kinondoni MC 30 2 3 25 16:53 9
Promotion - CAF Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - CAF Confederation Cup (Qualification)
Relegation - Ligi Kuu Bara 2025/2026 (Relegation)