Sport Picks

Tanzania

Ligi Kuu Bara Sokoine Stadium

Mbeya City

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Tanzania Prisons play Mbeya City in the Ligi Kuu Bara. It looks like a close match. Recently, Tanzania Prisons averaged 0.79 goals scored and 1.41 conceded. Mbeya City averaged 0.9 goals scored and 1.52 conceded. In past meetings, Tanzania Prisons won 2, Mbeya City won 2, and they drew 1. Their last match on Jul 5, 2026 ended 0:2. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.31 for Tanzania Prisons and 1.19 for Mbeya City. This points to a Tanzania Prisons double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

42%

Tanzania Prisons

22%

Draws

36%

Mbeya City

Draw rate projection: 22% Favored: Tanzania Prisons

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

71% / Medium Confidence

Tanzania Prisons picked up more points recently compared to Mbeya City.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.31 vs 1.19 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%

Over 1.5 Goals 67%

Over 2.5 Goals 43%

Over 3.5 Goals 26%

Over 4.5 Goals 13%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 43%

Tanzania Prisons Clean Sheet 20%

Mbeya City Clean Sheet 10%

First Half Goal 60%

Second Half Goal 64%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Tanzania Prisons	Mbeya City
Matches Played	29	29
Wins	9	7
Draws	5	8
Losses	15	14
Goals Scored	0.79	0.9
Goals Conceded	1.41	1.52
Expected Goals (xG)	1.38	0.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.63	1.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 5, 2026 Ligi Kuu Bara

Tanzania Prisons vs Mbeya City

Possession: 45% - 42% Cards: 2 - 3

0:2

May 4, 2026 Ligi Kuu Bara

Tanzania Prisons vs Mbeya City

Possession: 54% - 59% Cards: 3 - 0

1:2

Oct 21, 2025 Ligi Kuu Bara

Mbeya City vs Tanzania Prisons

Possession: 55% - 58% Cards: 4 - 3

1:2

Dec 25, 2022 Ligi Kuu Bara

Mbeya City vs Tanzania Prisons

Possession: 43% - 53% Cards: 0 - 1

1:2

Sep 9, 2022 Ligi Kuu Bara

Tanzania Prisons vs Mbeya City

Possession: 40% - 40% Cards: 3 - 4

1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Tanzania Prisons Compare

Top Goalscorer Martin E.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 1.06

Avg xA / game 0.69

Mbeya City Compare

Top Goalscorer Ambokile E.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 0.68

Avg xA / game 0.42

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Tanzania Prisons 42 / 100

Mbeya City 34 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Tanzania Prisons Mbeya City

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Tanzania Prisons or Draw (1X)

Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals

First Half Result Home Win (HT)

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +23.5%

2.94

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +16.1%

2.70

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Tanzania Prisons attacking → ← attacking Mbeya City

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Tanzania Prisons scored in 52% of their last 29 games.

Mbeya City let in goals in 72% of their last 29 matches.

Games between these two average 2.60 goals.

Tanzania Prisons went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Mbeya City lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

32 Points in last 5 29

1.38 Goals expected (xG) 0.75

1.63 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.25

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Young Africans	30	23	6	1	71:9	75
2	Simba	30	22	7	1	54:11	73
3	Azam	30	18	10	2	46:12	64
4	Singida Black Stars	30	15	5	10	47:35	50
5	TRA United	30	11	10	9	33:28	43
6	JKT Tanzania	30	10	12	8	30:33	42
7	Pamba	30	9	9	12	32:35	36
8	Coastal Union	30	9	9	12	31:37	36
9	Dodoma Jiji	30	8	11	11	25:36	35
10	Namungo	30	7	13	10	25:32	34
11	Mashujaa	30	7	12	11	15:27	33
12	Fountain Gate	30	9	6	15	25:44	33
13	Tanzania Prisons	30	9	5	16	23:41	32
14	Mbeya City	30	7	9	14	24:41	30
15	Mtibwa Sugar	30	6	9	15	25:48	27
16	Kinondoni MC	30	2	3	25	16:53	9