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Tanzania vs Tunisia

Africa Africa

Africa Cup of Nations 2025 Stade Prince Moulay Abdallah, Rabat
Our Tip

Match Events

31'
Valery Y.
41'
Hamad I.
43' Event
Gharbi I.
(Penalty)

AI Match Summary

This match ends 1-1. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

80%
Tanzania
20%
Draws
0%
Tunisia
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Tanzania

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

80% / Very High Confidence
  • Tanzania haven't matched Tunisia's recent run of results.
  • Model gives Tanzania a 80% chance of winning this.
  • Tunisia arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 62.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 26.8%
Tanzania Clean Sheet 68%
Tunisia Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Tanzania Tunisia
Matches Played 26 28
Wins 8 12
Draws 5 5
Losses 13 11
Goals Scored 1 1.43
Goals Conceded 1.04 1.39
Expected Goals (xG) 1.06 1.19
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Dec 30, 2025 Africa Cup of Nations
Tanzania vs Tunisia
1:1
Nov 17, 2020 Africa Cup of Nations
Tanzania vs Tunisia
1:1
Nov 13, 2020 Africa Cup of Nations
Tunisia vs Tanzania
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Tanzania Compare

Top Goalscorer Salum F.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.82
Avg xA / game 0.53

Tunisia Compare

Avg xG / game 1.08
Avg xA / game 0.66

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Tanzania 95 / 100
Tunisia 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Tanzania Tunisia

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Tanzania Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Difficult form: Tunisia registered 5 defeats in their last 5 games.

Defensive concern: Tunisia conceded in 64% of 28 recent games.

H2H data points to 1.67 goals as a typical output.

Tanzania has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Tanzania VS Tunisia
1.13 Goals Scored 1.63
0.75 Goals Conceded 1
50% Over 1.5 75%
25% Over 2.5 63%
13% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Tanzania

(Home)
29 Mar
Macau
0 : 6
Tanzania
26 Mar
Tanzania
0 : 1
Liechtenstein
04 Jan
Morocco
1 : 0
Tanzania
30 Dec
Tanzania
1 : 1
Tunisia
27 Dec
Uganda
1 : 1
Tanzania
Page 1 of 6

Tunisia

(Away)
25 Jun
Tunisia
1 : 3
Netherlands
21 Jun
Tunisia
0 : 4
Japan
15 Jun
Sweden
5 : 1
Tunisia
06 Jun
Belgium
5 : 0
Tunisia
01 Jun
Austria
1 : 0
Tunisia
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Morocco 3 2 1 0 6:1 7
2 Mali 3 0 3 0 2:2 3
3 Comoros 3 0 2 1 0:2 2
4 Zambia 3 0 2 1 1:4 2
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations 2025 (Play Offs)
Ranking of third-placed teams

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Egypt 3 2 1 0 3:1 7
2 South Africa 3 2 0 1 5:4 6
3 Angola 3 0 2 1 2:3 2
4 Zimbabwe 3 0 1 2 4:6 1
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations 2025 (Play Offs)
Ranking of third-placed teams

League Standings (Group 3)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Nigeria 3 3 0 0 8:4 9
2 Tunisia 3 1 1 1 6:5 4
3 Tanzania 3 0 2 1 3:4 2
4 Uganda 3 0 1 2 3:7 1
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations 2025 (Play Offs)
Ranking of third-placed teams

League Standings (Group 4)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Senegal 3 2 1 0 7:1 7
2 D.R. Congo 3 2 1 0 5:1 7
3 Benin 3 1 0 2 1:4 3
4 Botswana 3 0 0 3 0:7 0
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations 2025 (Play Offs)
Ranking of third-placed teams

League Standings (Group 5)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Algeria 3 3 0 0 7:1 9
2 Burkina Faso 3 2 0 1 4:2 6
3 Sudan 3 1 0 2 1:5 3
4 Equatorial Guinea 3 0 0 3 2:6 0
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations 2025 (Play Offs)
Ranking of third-placed teams

League Standings (Group 6)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Ivory Coast 3 2 1 0 5:3 7
2 Cameroon 3 2 1 0 4:2 7
3 Mozambique 3 1 0 2 4:5 3
4 Gabon 3 0 0 3 4:7 0
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations 2025 (Play Offs)
Ranking of third-placed teams