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Stadium Background

Tarbes vs Lorient II

France France

National 1 - Group B
Our Tip

Match Events

4' Event
Cassange O.

AI Match Summary

The National 1 - Group B game between Tarbes and Lorient II finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Tarbes.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

29%
Tarbes
30%
Draws
41%
Lorient II
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Lorient II

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

41% / Low Confidence
  • Lorient II carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Win probability leans Lorient II's way, sitting at 60%.
  • Regular National 1 - Group B form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 3 times recently and Lorient II have taken 2 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71%
Tarbes Clean Sheet 20%
Lorient II Clean Sheet 15%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Tarbes Lorient II
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 8 10
Draws 6 4
Losses 16 15
Goals Scored 1.07 1.41
Goals Conceded 1.93 1.62
Expected Goals (xG) 0.98 1.10
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 29, 2026 National 1 - Group B
Tarbes vs Lorient II
1:0
Feb 21, 2015 National 2 - Group D
Lorient II vs Tarbes
2:1
Sep 13, 2014 National 2 - Group D
Tarbes vs Lorient II
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Tarbes Compare

Top Goalscorer Cassange O.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.75
Avg xA / game 0.49

Lorient II Compare

Avg xG / game 1
Avg xA / game 0.61

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Tarbes 20 / 100
Lorient II 57 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Tarbes Lorient II

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Lorient II Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Lorient II conceded in 83% of 29 recent games.

Tarbes scored in 60% of their last 30 games.

Games between these two average 2.33 goals.

Tarbes went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Tarbes VS Lorient II
0.33 Goals Scored 1.38
0.83 Goals Conceded 1.63
33% Over 1.5 75%
33% Over 2.5 50%
0% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Tarbes

(Home)
12 Sept
Tarbes
1 : 2
Angouleme CFC
05 Sept
Voltigeurs de Chateaubriant
0 : 0
Tarbes
29 Aug
Tarbes
1 : 0
Lorient II
22 Aug
Saumur Olympique
0 : 0
Tarbes
17 Jul
Pau
3 : 0
Tarbes
Page 1 of 6

Lorient II

(Away)
12 Sept
Pontivy
0 : 3
Lorient II
05 Sept
Lorient II
0 : 1
Bayonne
29 Aug
Tarbes
1 : 0
Lorient II
22 Aug
Lorient II
3 : 1
Chauray
16 May
Lorient II
1 : 1
Stade Poitevin
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Bayonne 4 4 0 0 7:2 12
2 Angouleme CFC 4 3 1 0 7:2 10
3 Avranches 4 2 2 0 6:2 8
4 Dinan 4 2 1 1 3:2 7
5 Lorient II 4 2 0 2 6:3 6
6 Stade Briochin 4 1 3 0 3:2 6
7 Saint-Malo 3 1 2 0 5:1 5
8 Tarbes 4 1 2 1 2:2 5
9 Granville 4 1 2 1 6:7 5
10 Les Herbiers 4 1 1 2 4:6 4
11 Saumur Olympique 4 1 1 2 2:4 4
12 Le Poire Sur Vie 4 1 0 3 3:7 3
13 St. Colomban Locmine 3 0 2 1 1:2 2
14 Pontivy 4 0 2 2 3:7 2
15 Voltigeurs de Chateaubriant 4 0 2 2 1:5 2
16 Chauray 4 0 1 3 2:7 1
Promotion - Ligue 3 2027/2028 (Main)