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Tartu JK Welco vs FC Tallinn - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Estonia Estonia

Esiliiga Holm Jalgpallipark, Tartu
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Match Events

4' Event
Arhipov L.
33' Event
Toome O.

AI Match Summary

FC Tallinn in this Esiliiga matchup, with the score ending 0-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored FC Tallinn.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

43%
Tartu JK Welco
30%
Draws
27%
FC Tallinn
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Tartu JK Welco

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

43% / Low Confidence
  • Tartu JK Welco have won more games recently than FC Tallinn.
  • Model gives Tartu JK Welco a 43% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Esiliiga form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32%
Tartu JK Welco Clean Sheet 68%
FC Tallinn Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Tartu JK Welco FC Tallinn
Matches Played 28 29
Wins 17 10
Draws 5 6
Losses 6 13
Goals Scored 2.96 1.38
Goals Conceded 1.25 2.03
Expected Goals (xG) 1.94 1.44
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 18, 2026 Esiliiga
Tartu JK Welco vs FC Tallinn
0:2
Jun 13, 2026 Esiliiga
Tartu JK Welco vs FC Tallinn
4:0
May 1, 2026 Esiliiga
FC Tallinn vs Tartu JK Welco
0:2
Sep 21, 2025 Esiliiga
Tartu JK Welco vs FC Tallinn
2:2
Aug 23, 2025 Esiliiga
FC Tallinn vs Tartu JK Welco
0:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Tartu JK Welco Compare

Avg xG / game 1.49
Avg xA / game 0.97

FC Tallinn Compare

Top Goalscorer Arhipov L.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Toome O.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.31
Avg xA / game 0.8

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Tartu JK Welco 95 / 100
FC Tallinn 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Tartu JK Welco FC Tallinn

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Tartu JK Welco Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 4:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Tartu JK Welco scored in 86% of their last 28 games.

FC Tallinn's defensive record shows goals conceded in 83% of 29 matches.

Recent resilience: Tartu JK Welco stayed unbeaten in 5 of the last 5 games.

Games between these two average 2.80 goals.

Scoring Trends

Tartu JK Welco VS FC Tallinn
2.38 Goals Scored 1.88
1 Goals Conceded 1.5
88% Over 1.5 100%
63% Over 2.5 63%
50% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Tartu JK Welco

(Home)
09 Oct
Tartu JK Welco
4 : 0
Elva
17 Sept
Viimsi JK
0 : 2
Tartu JK Welco
14 Sept
Tartu JK Welco
3 : 0
Kalju U21
10 Sept
Levadia U21
0 : 0
Tartu JK Welco
05 Sept
Tallinna Kalev
1 : 1
Tartu JK Welco
Page 1 of 6

FC Tallinn

(Away)
10 Oct
Flora Tallinn U21
1 : 2
FC Tallinn
03 Oct
FC Tallinn
0 : 10
Harju JK Laagri
22 Sept
FC Tallinn
5 : 0
Harju JK Laagri U21
19 Sept
Elva
1 : 1
FC Tallinn
13 Sept
FC Tallinn
1 : 5
Levadia U21
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Tartu JK Welco 32 21 5 6 85:39 68
2 Viimsi JK 32 17 5 10 58:32 56
3 Flora Tallinn U21 32 15 6 11 73:55 51
4 Elva 32 15 6 11 47:48 51
5 Levadia U21 31 15 2 14 61:55 47
6 Tallinna Kalev 31 11 7 13 53:57 40
7 Nomme Utd U21 32 11 6 15 50:63 39
8 FC Tallinn 31 9 8 14 41:64 35
9 Kalju U21 31 7 4 20 38:79 25
10 Maardu Linnameeskond 36 12 5 19 45:59 41
Promotion - Meistriliiga 2027 (Main)
Promotion - Meistriliiga (Relegation)
Relegation - Esiliiga (Relegation)
Relegation - Esiliiga B 2027 (Main)