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Tartu JK Welco vs FC Tallinn

Estonia Estonia

Esiliiga Holm Jalgpallipark
Our Tip

Match Events

35' Event
Laasner K.
Assist: Mugra M.
69' Event
Malki U.
Assist: Mottus E.
81' Event
Laasner K.
Assist: Malki U.

AI Match Summary

Tartu JK Welco in this Esiliiga matchup, with the score ending 4-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Tartu JK Welco.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

90%
Tartu JK Welco
6%
Draws
4%
FC Tallinn
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Tartu JK Welco

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • FC Tallinn haven't matched Tartu JK Welco's recent run of results.
  • Tartu JK Welco are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • Regular Esiliiga form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 63%
Over 4.5 Goals 28%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 36.400000000000006%
Tartu JK Welco Clean Sheet 68%
FC Tallinn Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Tartu JK Welco FC Tallinn
Matches Played 29 32
Wins 16 10
Draws 6 6
Losses 7 16
Goals Scored 2.75 1.13
Goals Conceded 1.25 2.25
Expected Goals (xG) 2.75 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.25 2.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 18, 2026 Esiliiga
Tartu JK Welco vs FC Tallinn
0:2
Jun 13, 2026 Esiliiga
Tartu JK Welco vs FC Tallinn
4:0
May 1, 2026 Esiliiga
FC Tallinn vs Tartu JK Welco
0:2
Sep 21, 2025 Esiliiga
Tartu JK Welco vs FC Tallinn
2:2
Aug 23, 2025 Esiliiga
FC Tallinn vs Tartu JK Welco
0:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Tartu JK Welco Compare

Top Goalscorer Laasner K.
3 Goals
Assists Leader Malki U.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.12
Avg xA / game 1.38

FC Tallinn Compare

Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Tartu JK Welco 95 / 100
FC Tallinn 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Tartu JK Welco FC Tallinn

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick TAR Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 3:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Tartu JK Welco found the back of the net in 83% of recent matches (29 games).

FC Tallinn's defensive record shows goals conceded in 91% of 32 matches.

These sides typically produce 2.80 goals when they meet.

Recent resilience: Tartu JK Welco stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Tartu JK Welco VS FC Tallinn
2.75 Goals Scored 1.13
1.25 Goals Conceded 2.25
88% Over 1.5 88%
63% Over 2.5 63%
63% Over 3.5 63%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Tartu JK Welco20143362:2645
2Viimsi JK1995531:1932
3Flora Tallinn U211994646:3831
4Elva2093837:3330
5Levadia U2120901139:3527
6Maardu Linnameeskond2075830:4726
7Tallinna Kalev2074940:4025
8FC Tallinn20551027:4920
9Nomme Utd U211955936:4520
10Kalju U2119541030:4619