Sport Picks
Tartu JK Welco vs Maardu Linnameeskond
Estonia
Esiliiga Holm Jalgpallipark, Tartu 
Match Events
1'
1'
Magi M.
Assist: Mottus E.
54'
54'
Mottus E.
Assist: Malki U.
57'
57'
Tsombaljuk S.
AI Match Summary
Tartu JK Welco in this Esiliiga matchup, with the score ending 5-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Tartu JK Welco.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
90%
6%
4%
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Tartu JK Welco
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
95%
/ Very High Confidence
- Form's been kind to Tartu JK Welco lately — more wins on the board than Maardu Linnameeskond.
- Tartu JK Welco are the model's pick here, at 90%.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 50.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 23%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 77.8%
Tartu JK Welco Clean Sheet 16%
Maardu Linnameeskond Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Tartu JK Welco | Maardu Linnameeskond |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 30 |
| Wins | 16 | 12 |
| Draws | 6 | 8 |
| Losses | 7 | 10 |
| Goals Scored | 2.75 | 1.75 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.25 | 1.5 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 2.75 | 1.75 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.25 | 1.50 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Jul 13, 2026 Esiliiga
Maardu Linnameeskond vs Tartu JK Welco
1:8
May 24, 2026 Esiliiga
Maardu Linnameeskond vs Tartu JK Welco
0:1
Mar 21, 2026 Esiliiga
Tartu JK Welco vs Maardu Linnameeskond
5:1
Oct 2, 2021 Esiliiga
Tartu JK Welco vs Maardu Linnameeskond
0:0
Sep 18, 2021 Esiliiga
Maardu Linnameeskond vs Tartu JK Welco
7:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Tartu JK Welco Compare
Top Goalscorer Laasner K.
3 Goals Assists Leader Magi M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.12
Avg xA / game 1.38
Maardu Linnameeskond Compare
Top Goalscorer Tsombaljuk S.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.59
Avg xA / game 0.97
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Tartu JK Welco 84 / 100
Maardu Linnameeskond 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Tartu JK Welco Maardu Linnameeskond
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick TAR Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Tartu JK Welco scored in 83% of their last 29 games.
Maardu Linnameeskond let in goals in 87% of their last 30 matches.
Historical meetings average 4.60 goals per match.
Recent resilience: Tartu JK Welco stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Tartu JK Welco VS Maardu Linnameeskond
2.75 Goals Scored 1.75
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.5
88% Over 1.5 63%
63% Over 2.5 63%
63% Over 3.5 38%
Recent Form & Match History
Tartu JK Welco
(Home) 18 Jul
Tartu JK Welco
0 : 2 FC Tallinn
13 Jul
Maardu Linnameeskond
1 : 8 Tartu JK Welco
02 Jul
Tartu JK Welco
2 : 2 Viimsi JK
21 Jun
Tartu JK Welco
5 : 2 Nomme Utd U21
18 Jun
Levadia U21
1 : 3 Tartu JK Welco
Page 1 of 6
18 Jul
Tartu JK Welco
0 : 2 FC Tallinn
02 Jul
Tartu JK Welco
2 : 2 Viimsi JK
21 Jun
Tartu JK Welco
5 : 2 Nomme Utd U21
13 Jun
Tartu JK Welco
4 : 0 FC Tallinn
28 May
Tartu JK Welco
4 : 2 Kalju U21
Page 1 of 3
Maardu Linnameeskond
(Away) 18 Jul
Flora Tallinn U21
1 : 3 Maardu Linnameeskond
13 Jul
Maardu Linnameeskond
1 : 8 Tartu JK Welco
09 Jul
Maardu Linnameeskond
3 : 2 Flora Tallinn U21
03 Jul
Tallinna Kalev
3 : 3 Maardu Linnameeskond
22 Jun
Maardu Linnameeskond
1 : 0 Viimsi JK
Page 1 of 6
18 Jul
Flora Tallinn U21
1 : 3 Maardu Linnameeskond
03 Jul
Tallinna Kalev
3 : 3 Maardu Linnameeskond
11 Jun
Elva
4 : 3 Maardu Linnameeskond
28 May
FC Tallinn
0 : 0 Maardu Linnameeskond
16 May
Levadia U21
1 : 2 Maardu Linnameeskond
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tartu JK Welco | 20 | 14 | 3 | 3 | 62:26 | 45 |
| 2 | Viimsi JK | 19 | 9 | 5 | 5 | 31:19 | 32 |
| 3 | Flora Tallinn U21 | 19 | 9 | 4 | 6 | 46:38 | 31 |
| 4 | Elva | 20 | 9 | 3 | 8 | 37:33 | 30 |
| 5 | Levadia U21 | 20 | 9 | 0 | 11 | 39:35 | 27 |
| 6 | Maardu Linnameeskond | 20 | 7 | 5 | 8 | 30:47 | 26 |
| 7 | Tallinna Kalev | 20 | 7 | 4 | 9 | 40:40 | 25 |
| 8 | FC Tallinn | 20 | 5 | 5 | 10 | 27:49 | 20 |
| 9 | Nomme Utd U21 | 19 | 5 | 5 | 9 | 36:45 | 20 |
| 10 | Kalju U21 | 19 | 5 | 4 | 10 | 30:46 | 19 |
Promotion - Meistriliiga 2027 (Main)
Promotion - Meistriliiga (Relegation)
Relegation - Esiliiga (Relegation)
Relegation - Esiliiga B 2027 (Main)