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Tartu JK Welco vs Nomme Utd U21 Prediction & H2H Stats

Estonia Estonia

Esiliiga Holm Jalgpallipark, Tartu
Tartu JK Welco Logo

Tartu JK Welco

5 - 2
FT
Nomme Utd U21 Logo

Nomme Utd U21

Our Tip

Match Events

16' Event
Palu R.
Assist: Molder K.
24' Event
Kiivit A.
Assist: Magi M.
31' Event
Veensalu E.
Assist: Laasner K.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Tartu JK Welco in this Esiliiga matchup, with the score ending 5-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Tartu JK Welco.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

38%
Tartu JK Welco
20%
Draws
42%
Nomme Utd U21
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Nomme Utd U21

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

38% / Low Confidence
  • Tartu JK Welco have won more games recently than Nomme Utd U21.
  • Win probability leans Tartu JK Welco's way, sitting at 40%.
  • Regular Esiliiga form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors Tartu JK Welco here — 2 wins from the last 3 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 78.2%
Tartu JK Welco Clean Sheet 20%
Nomme Utd U21 Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Tartu JK Welco Nomme Utd U21
Matches Played 32 30
Wins 19 10
Draws 5 6
Losses 8 14
Goals Scored 2.88 1.67
Goals Conceded 1.34 2.07
Expected Goals (xG) 2.13 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 1, 2026 Esiliiga
Nomme Utd U21 vs Tartu JK Welco
2:1
Jun 21, 2026 Esiliiga
Tartu JK Welco vs Nomme Utd U21
5:2
Apr 3, 2026 Esiliiga
Nomme Utd U21 vs Tartu JK Welco
1:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Tartu JK Welco Compare

Top Goalscorer Veensalu E.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Kiivit A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.64
Avg xA / game 1.06

Nomme Utd U21 Compare

Top Goalscorer Palu R.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Radomskiy A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Tartu JK Welco 40 / 100
Nomme Utd U21 26 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Tartu JK Welco Nomme Utd U21

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Tartu JK Welco Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 3:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Tartu JK Welco scored in 81% of their last 32 outings.

Defensive concern: Nomme Utd U21 conceded in 87% of 30 recent games.

These sides typically produce 4.67 goals when they meet.

Tartu JK Welco went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Tartu JK Welco VS Nomme Utd U21
2.88 Goals Scored 1.13
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.38
88% Over 1.5 75%
75% Over 2.5 50%
50% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Tartu JK Welco

(Home)
17 Sept
Viimsi JK
0 : 2
Tartu JK Welco
14 Sept
Tartu JK Welco
3 : 0
Kalju U21
10 Sept
Levadia U21
0 : 0
Tartu JK Welco
05 Sept
Tallinna Kalev
1 : 1
Tartu JK Welco
29 Aug
Tartu JK Welco
1 : 3
Viimsi JK
Page 1 of 7

Nomme Utd U21

(Away)
21 Sept
Kalju U21
2 : 3
Nomme Utd U21
13 Sept
Nomme Utd U21
1 : 0
Viimsi JK
10 Sept
Nomme Utd U21
2 : 1
Tallinna Kalev
06 Sept
Maardu Linnameeskond
2 : 1
Nomme Utd U21
03 Sept
Nomme Utd U21
0 : 1
Elva
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Tartu JK Welco 30 19 5 6 81:39 62
2 Viimsi JK 30 15 5 10 56:31 50
3 Flora Tallinn U21 30 14 6 10 72:53 48
4 Elva 30 14 6 10 47:44 48
5 Maardu Linnameeskond 27 12 5 10 45:55 41
6 Levadia U21 29 13 2 14 60:55 41
7 Tallinna Kalev 29 10 7 12 52:55 37
8 Nomme Utd U21 30 10 6 14 50:62 36
9 FC Tallinn 29 7 8 14 35:63 29
10 Kalju U21 30 6 4 20 38:79 22
Promotion - Meistriliiga 2027 (Main)
Promotion - Meistriliiga (Relegation)
Relegation - Esiliiga (Relegation)
Relegation - Esiliiga B 2027 (Main)