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Tartu JK Welco vs Tallinna Kalev

Estonia Estonia

Esiliiga Holm Jalgpallipark
Our Tip

Match Events

25' Event
Kiivit A.
Assist: Magi M.
59' Event
Mottus E.
Assist: Mugra M.
60' Event
Mugra M.
Assist: Laasner K.

AI Match Summary

Tartu JK Welco in this Esiliiga matchup, with the score ending 3-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Tartu JK Welco.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

90%
Tartu JK Welco
6%
Draws
4%
Tallinna Kalev
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Tartu JK Welco

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Tartu JK Welco have won more games recently than Tallinna Kalev.
  • Win probability leans Tartu JK Welco's way, sitting at 90%.
  • Regular Esiliiga form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 85%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 85%
Over 3.5 Goals 69%
Over 4.5 Goals 31%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 76.6%
Tartu JK Welco Clean Sheet 16%
Tallinna Kalev Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Tartu JK Welco Tallinna Kalev
Matches Played 28 28
Wins 16 10
Draws 6 4
Losses 6 14
Goals Scored 3.63 1.88
Goals Conceded 1 2.38
Expected Goals (xG) 3.63 1.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.00 2.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 9, 2026 Esiliiga
Tallinna Kalev vs Tartu JK Welco
2:0
Mar 5, 2026 Esiliiga
Tartu JK Welco vs Tallinna Kalev
3:0
Jul 15, 2023 Estonian Cup
Tartu JK Welco vs Tallinna Kalev
0:4
Oct 31, 2021 Esiliiga
Tartu JK Welco vs Tallinna Kalev
2:3
Oct 16, 2021 Esiliiga
Tallinna Kalev vs Tartu JK Welco
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Tartu JK Welco Compare

Top Goalscorer Kiivit A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Mottus E.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.79
Avg xA / game 1.81

Tallinna Kalev Compare

Avg xG / game 1.71
Avg xA / game 1.04

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Tartu JK Welco 84 / 100
Tallinna Kalev 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Tartu JK Welco Tallinna Kalev

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick TAR Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Tartu JK Welco found the back of the net in 86% of recent matches (28 games).

Tallinna Kalev has conceded goals in 89% of their last 28 outings.

Solid form: Tartu JK Welco remains unbeaten in 5 of 5 recent matches.

These sides typically produce 2.80 goals when they meet.

Scoring Trends

Tartu JK Welco VS Tallinna Kalev
3.63 Goals Scored 1.88
1 Goals Conceded 2.38
88% Over 1.5 100%
75% Over 2.5 100%
75% Over 3.5 63%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Tartu JK Welco19143262:2445
2Viimsi JK1995531:1932
3Flora Tallinn U211894545:3531
4Elva2093837:3330
5Levadia U2119801137:3524
6Maardu Linnameeskond1965827:4623
7Tallinna Kalev1964937:3922
8Nomme Utd U211855835:4220
9Kalju U211854930:4419
10FC Tallinn19451025:4917