Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Tartu Kalev vs Kuressaare U21

Estonia Estonia

Esiliiga B 2025 Ulenurme stadium, Ulenurme
Tartu Kalev Logo

Tartu Kalev

3 - 1
FT
Kuressaare U21 Logo

Kuressaare U21

Our Tip

Match Events

8' Event
Kaasik K.
19' Event
Juhanson R.
30' Event
Lehter D.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Tartu Kalev in this Esiliiga B 2025 matchup, with the score ending 3-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Tartu Kalev.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

85%
Tartu Kalev
15%
Draws
0%
Kuressaare U21
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Tartu Kalev

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

85% / Very High Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Tartu Kalev lately — more wins on the board than Kuressaare U21.
  • Win probability leans Tartu Kalev's way, sitting at 80%.
  • Regular Esiliiga B 2025 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors Tartu Kalev here — 5 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 50%
Over 4.5 Goals 23%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 33.2%
Tartu Kalev Clean Sheet 68%
Kuressaare U21 Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Tartu Kalev Kuressaare U21
Matches Played 38 30
Wins 22 4
Draws 3 1
Losses 13 25
Goals Scored 2.55 0.97
Goals Conceded 1.79 2.93
Expected Goals (xG) 2.42 2.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 21, 2025 Esiliiga B
Tartu Kalev vs Kuressaare U21
3:1
Aug 17, 2025 Esiliiga B
Kuressaare U21 vs Tartu Kalev
0:4
May 25, 2025 Esiliiga B
Kuressaare U21 vs Tartu Kalev
0:3
Mar 30, 2025 Esiliiga B
Tartu Kalev vs Kuressaare U21
3:1
Sep 19, 2024 Esiliiga B
Kuressaare U21 vs Tartu Kalev
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Tartu Kalev Compare

Top Goalscorer Kaasik K.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Juhanson R.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.86
Avg xA / game 1.21

Kuressaare U21 Compare

Top Goalscorer Vinter R.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.87
Avg xA / game 1.14

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Tartu Kalev 86 / 100
Kuressaare U21 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Tartu Kalev Kuressaare U21

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Tartu Kalev Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 3:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Tartu Kalev's goal record stands at 92% scoring rate across 38 recent games.

Kuressaare U21 has conceded goals in 87% of their last 30 outings.

These sides typically produce 3.20 goals when they meet.

Kuressaare U21 lost 5 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Tartu Kalev VS -
3.63 Goals Scored 0
3.13 Goals Conceded 0
100% Over 1.5 0%
100% Over 2.5 0%
100% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Tartu Kalev

(Home)
26 Sept
Tulevik
6 : 1
Tartu Kalev
13 Sept
Parnu JK Vaprus U21
0 : 4
Tartu Kalev
10 Sept
Legion
1 : 2
Tartu Kalev
06 Sept
Tartu Kalev
0 : 1
Narva U21
29 Aug
Tartu Kalev
0 : 3
Johvi Phoenix
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Kuressaare U21

(Away)
09 Nov
Kuressaare U21
1 : 2
Maardu Linnameeskond
02 Nov
Johvi Phoenix
4 : 0
Kuressaare U21
27 Oct
Kuressaare U21
1 : 4
Nomme Utd U21
23 Oct
Kuressaare U21
0 : 3
Paide Linnameeskond U21
19 Oct
Laanemaa Haapsalu
4 : 2
Kuressaare U21
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Maardu Linnameeskond 36 28 5 3 116:39 89
2 Nomme Utd U21 36 23 3 10 93:53 72
3 Johvi Phoenix 36 21 5 10 95:61 68
4 Narva U21 36 21 3 12 87:53 66
5 Tartu Kalev 36 19 4 13 81:53 61
6 Tabasalu 36 13 8 15 60:67 47
7 Legion 36 13 5 18 66:94 44
8 Paide Linnameeskond U21 36 11 8 17 65:71 41
9 Kuressaare U21 36 6 1 29 40:105 19
10 Laanemaa Haapsalu 36 3 2 31 33:140 11
Promotion - Esiliiga (Main)
Promotion - Esiliiga 2025 (Relegation)
Relegation - Esiliiga B 2025 (Relegation)