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Tartu Kalev vs Parnu JK Vaprus U21 - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Estonia Estonia

Esiliiga B
Our Tip

Match Events

69' Event
Toomsalu A.

AI Match Summary

Tartu Kalev in this Esiliiga B matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Tartu Kalev.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

34%
Tartu Kalev
15%
Draws
51%
Parnu JK Vaprus U21
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Parnu JK Vaprus U21

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Parnu JK Vaprus U21 average 3.33 goals a game right now, well clear of Tartu Kalev's 2.54.
  • Model gives Parnu JK Vaprus U21 a 51% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 79%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 79%
Over 3.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 25%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 78.6%
Tartu Kalev Clean Sheet 10%
Parnu JK Vaprus U21 Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Tartu Kalev Parnu JK Vaprus U21
Matches Played 28 27
Wins 13 13
Draws 2 4
Losses 13 10
Goals Scored 2.54 3.33
Goals Conceded 2.25 2
Expected Goals (xG) 1.31 3.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 13, 2026 Esiliiga B
Parnu JK Vaprus U21 vs Tartu Kalev
0:4
Aug 15, 2026 Esiliiga B
Tartu Kalev vs Parnu JK Vaprus U21
1:0
May 10, 2026 Esiliiga B
Tartu Kalev vs Parnu JK Vaprus U21
1:2
Mar 8, 2026 Esiliiga B
Parnu JK Vaprus U21 vs Tartu Kalev
5:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Tartu Kalev Compare

Top Goalscorer Toomsalu A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.01
Avg xA / game 0.66

Parnu JK Vaprus U21 Compare

Avg xG / game 2.78
Avg xA / game 1.7

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Tartu Kalev 14 / 100
Parnu JK Vaprus U21 65 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Tartu Kalev Parnu JK Vaprus U21

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Parnu JK Vaprus U21 Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Tartu Kalev found the back of the net in 89% of recent matches (28 games).

Parnu JK Vaprus U21's defensive record shows goals conceded in 85% of 27 matches.

Historical meetings average 3.50 goals per match.

Tartu Kalev went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Tartu Kalev VS Parnu JK Vaprus U21
1.25 Goals Scored 4.25
1.88 Goals Conceded 1.38
75% Over 1.5 88%
63% Over 2.5 88%
25% Over 3.5 88%

Recent Form & Match History

Tartu Kalev

(Home)
26 Sept
Tulevik
6 : 1
Tartu Kalev
13 Sept
Parnu JK Vaprus U21
0 : 4
Tartu Kalev
10 Sept
Legion
1 : 2
Tartu Kalev
06 Sept
Tartu Kalev
0 : 1
Narva U21
29 Aug
Tartu Kalev
0 : 3
Johvi Phoenix
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Parnu JK Vaprus U21

(Away)
18 Sept
Parnu JK Vaprus U21
12 : 0
Legion
13 Sept
Parnu JK Vaprus U21
0 : 4
Tartu Kalev
10 Sept
Parnu JK Vaprus U21
2 : 3
Johvi Phoenix
06 Sept
Parnu JK Vaprus U21
7 : 0
Tallinna Kalev U21
30 Aug
Legion
1 : 5
Parnu JK Vaprus U21
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Narva U21 30 20 3 7 71:36 63
2 Levadia U19 31 19 2 10 78:52 59
3 Johvi Phoenix 30 17 3 10 71:68 54
4 Tammeka Tartu U21 30 15 4 11 74:60 49
5 Tulevik 31 14 5 12 81:64 47
6 Tartu Kalev 30 15 2 13 72:58 47
7 Parnu JK Vaprus U21 30 14 4 12 95:62 46
8 Tabasalu 30 10 3 17 44:81 33
9 Tallinna Kalev U21 31 8 5 18 63:78 29
10 Legion 31 3 3 25 26:116 12
Promotion - Esiliiga 2027 (Main)
Promotion - Esiliiga (Relegation)
Relegation - Esiliiga B (Relegation)