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Tasman United vs Wellington Phoenix 2

New Zealand New Zealand

Football Championship 2019/2020
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Tasman United play Wellington Phoenix 2 in the Football Championship 2019/2020. It looks like a close match. Recently, Tasman United averaged 1.54 goals scored and 1.68 conceded. Wellington Phoenix 2 averaged 1.97 goals scored and 2.12 conceded. In past meetings, Tasman United won 2, Wellington Phoenix 2 won 1, and they drew 2. Their last match on Mar 8, 2020 ended 3:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.67 for Tasman United and 1.49 for Wellington Phoenix 2. This points to a Wellington Phoenix 2 double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%
Tasman United
25%
Draws
39%
Wellington Phoenix 2
Draw rate projection: 25% Favored: Wellington Phoenix 2

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / Medium Confidence
  • Tasman United picked up more points recently compared to Wellington Phoenix 2.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.67 vs 1.49 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 65%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 65%
Over 3.5 Goals 39%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 65%
Tasman United Clean Sheet 16%
Wellington Phoenix 2 Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 79%
Second Half Goal 84%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Tasman United Wellington Phoenix 2
Matches Played 28 33
Wins 8 13
Draws 7 4
Losses 13 16
Goals Scored 1.54 1.97
Goals Conceded 1.68 2.12

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 8, 2020 Football Championship
Wellington Phoenix 2 vs Tasman United
3:1
Dec 8, 2019 Football Championship
Tasman United vs Wellington Phoenix 2
1:1
Feb 3, 2019 Football Championship
Wellington Phoenix 2 vs Tasman United
1:1
Nov 18, 2018 Football Championship
Tasman United vs Wellington Phoenix 2
3:2
Mar 11, 2018 Football Championship
Wellington Phoenix 2 vs Tasman United
2:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Tasman United Compare

Top Goalscorer Tod-Smith M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0
Avg xA / game 0

Wellington Phoenix 2 Compare

Top Goalscorer Heath B.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.71
Avg xA / game 1.04

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Tasman United 36 / 100
Wellington Phoenix 2 37 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Tasman United Wellington Phoenix 2

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Wellington Phoenix 2 or Draw (X2)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +28.5%
3.57
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +9.9%
1.69
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Tasman United attacking → ← attacking Wellington Phoenix 2

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Tasman United scored in 79% of their last 28 games.

Wellington Phoenix 2 let in goals in 85% of their last 33 matches.

Games between these two average 3.60 goals.

Tasman United went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Wellington Phoenix 2 lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

31 Points in last 5 43
0.00 Goals expected (xG) 1.88
0.00 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 2.13

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Auckland City16114142:1537
2Team Wellington16104236:1534
3Waitakere United1683535:3227
4Eastern Suburbs1664633:2622
5Tasman United1662827:2620
6Hamilton1662824:3920
7Southern United1654725:3819
8Wellington Phoenix 21646630:3218
9Hawke s Bay1643932:4415
10Canterbury16241019:3610