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Team Wellington vs Hamilton

New Zealand New Zealand

Football Championship
Our Tip

Match Events

16' Event
Mason-Smith S.
18' Event
Clarkin J.
44' Event
Mason-Smith S.

AI Match Summary

Team Wellington in this Football Championship matchup, with the score ending 3-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Team Wellington.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

53%
Team Wellington
15%
Draws
32%
Hamilton
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Team Wellington

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

53% / Medium Confidence
  • Team Wellington have won more games recently than Hamilton.
  • Win probability leans Team Wellington's way, sitting at 90%.
  • European nights carry their own weight — this Football Championship fixture won't be treated like a routine game.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 100%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 75.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 34%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 79.8%
Team Wellington Clean Sheet 10%
Hamilton Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Team Wellington Hamilton
Matches Played 29 33
Wins 18 13
Draws 8 7
Losses 3 13
Goals Scored 2.41 1.61
Goals Conceded 1.14 1.88
Expected Goals (xG) 2.88 1.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 13, 2021 Football Championship
Team Wellington vs Hamilton
4:1
Feb 27, 2021 Football Championship
Team Wellington vs Hamilton
3:2
Jan 10, 2021 Football Championship
Hamilton vs Team Wellington
1:1
Jan 19, 2020 Football Championship
Hamilton vs Team Wellington
1:0
Nov 3, 2019 Football Championship
Team Wellington vs Hamilton
5:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Team Wellington Compare

Top Goalscorer Mason-Smith S.
3 Goals
Avg xG / game 2.22
Avg xA / game 1.44

Hamilton Compare

Top Goalscorer Clarkin J.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Tieku D.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.71
Avg xA / game 1.04

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Team Wellington 83 / 100
Hamilton 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Team Wellington Hamilton

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Team Wellington Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Team Wellington found the back of the net in 90% of recent matches (29 games).

Hamilton's defensive record shows goals conceded in 88% of 33 matches.

Games between these two average 3.80 goals.

Solid form: Team Wellington remains unbeaten in 5 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Team Wellington VS Hamilton
3.63 Goals Scored 2
1.75 Goals Conceded 2.13
100% Over 1.5 100%
88% Over 2.5 75%
88% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

Team Wellington

(Home)
21 Mar
Auckland City
2 : 4
Team Wellington
13 Mar
Team Wellington
4 : 1
Hamilton
27 Feb
Team Wellington
3 : 2
Hamilton
20 Feb
Canterbury
0 : 2
Team Wellington
13 Feb
Team Wellington
7 : 0
Eastern Suburbs
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Hamilton

(Away)
29 Jul
Hamilton
0 : 3
Christchurch
09 Jul
Hamilton
3 : 2
Ngaruawahia AFC
20 Aug
Eastern Suburbs
1 : 0
Hamilton
30 Jul
Miramar
3 : 4
Hamilton
09 Jul
Auckland United
0 : 1
Hamilton
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Auckland City 14 8 4 2 27:13 28
2 Team Wellington 14 7 5 2 35:21 26
3 Hamilton 14 5 5 4 23:21 20
4 Eastern Suburbs 14 5 4 5 25:23 19
5 Waitakere United 14 4 6 4 28:26 18
6 Canterbury 14 5 3 6 21:24 18
7 Hawke s Bay 14 4 1 9 17:29 13
8 Wellington Phoenix 2 14 2 4 8 18:37 10
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