Sport Picks
Tepatitlan de Morelos vs Atletico La Paz - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
Mexico
Liga de Expansion MX Estadio Gregorio "Tepa" Gómez, Tepatitlán 
Match Events
14'
14'
Rodriguez S.
29'
29'
Castaneda S.
31'
31'
Barragan M.
(Penalty)
AI Match Summary
Atletico La Paz in this Liga de Expansion MX matchup, with the score ending 0-5 — backing the pre-match view that favored Atletico La Paz.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
20%
15%
65%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Atletico La Paz
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
65%
/ High Confidence
- Atletico La Paz have won more games recently than Tepatitlan de Morelos.
- Model gives Atletico La Paz a 65% chance of winning this.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 25%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.8%
Tepatitlan de Morelos Clean Sheet 10%
Atletico La Paz Clean Sheet 18%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Tepatitlan de Morelos | Atletico La Paz |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 29 |
| Wins | 10 | 11 |
| Draws | 8 | 10 |
| Losses | 12 | 8 |
| Goals Scored | 1.23 | 1.69 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.6 | 1.28 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 0.81 | 2.69 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Aug 8, 2026 Liga de Expansion MX
Tepatitlan de Morelos vs Atletico La Paz
0:5
Apr 11, 2026 Liga de Expansion MX
Atletico La Paz vs Tepatitlan de Morelos
1:1
Nov 1, 2025 Liga de Expansion MX
Tepatitlan de Morelos vs Atletico La Paz
0:1
Mar 22, 2025 Liga de Expansion MX
Tepatitlan de Morelos vs Atletico La Paz
4:1
Oct 5, 2024 Liga de Expansion MX
Atletico La Paz vs Tepatitlan de Morelos
2:5
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Tepatitlan de Morelos Compare
Avg xG / game 0.62
Avg xA / game 0.41
Atletico La Paz Compare
Top Goalscorer Barragan M.
1 Goals Assists Leader Torres E.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.45
Avg xA / game 1.49
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Tepatitlan de Morelos 10 / 100
Atletico La Paz 85 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Tepatitlan de Morelos Atletico La Paz
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Atletico La Paz Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Games between these two average 4.00 goals.
Tepatitlan de Morelos's goal record stands at 63% scoring rate across 30 recent games.
Atletico La Paz's defensive record shows goals conceded in 69% of 29 matches.
Tepatitlan de Morelos has registered 1 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.
Scoring Trends
Tepatitlan de Morelos VS Atletico La Paz
0.88 Goals Scored 2.25
3.13 Goals Conceded 0.75
75% Over 1.5 88%
75% Over 2.5 63%
75% Over 3.5 38%
Recent Form & Match History
Tepatitlan de Morelos
(Home) 03 Oct
Tepatitlan de Morelos
3 : 1 Jaiba Brava
19 Sept
Tepatitlan de Morelos
0 : 1 Zacatecas Mineros
12 Sept
Venados FC
5 : 0 Tepatitlan de Morelos
04 Sept
Tepatitlan de Morelos
1 : 4 Dorados de Sinaloa
29 Aug
Cruz Azul Hidalgo
6 : 0 Tepatitlan de Morelos
Page 1 of 6
03 Oct
Tepatitlan de Morelos
3 : 1 Jaiba Brava
19 Sept
Tepatitlan de Morelos
0 : 1 Zacatecas Mineros
04 Sept
Tepatitlan de Morelos
1 : 4 Dorados de Sinaloa
21 Aug
Tepatitlan de Morelos
3 : 2 Tlaxcala
08 Aug
Tepatitlan de Morelos
0 : 5 Atletico La Paz
Page 1 of 3
Atletico La Paz
(Away) 03 Oct
Atletico La Paz
1 : 2 Venados FC
25 Sept
Alebrijes de Oaxaca
1 : 3 Atletico La Paz
19 Sept
Atletico La Paz
3 : 1 Correcaminos
13 Sept
Leones Negros
2 : 2 Atletico La Paz
05 Sept
Atletico La Paz
3 : 0 Zacatecas Mineros
Page 1 of 6
25 Sept
Alebrijes de Oaxaca
1 : 3 Atletico La Paz
13 Sept
Leones Negros
2 : 2 Atletico La Paz
28 Aug
Cancun
1 : 2 Atletico La Paz
08 Aug
Tepatitlan de Morelos
0 : 5 Atletico La Paz
26 Jul
Club Atletico Morelia
4 : 2 Atletico La Paz
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Leones Negros | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 27:16 | 23 |
| 2 | Club Atletico Morelia | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 21:12 | 22 |
| 3 | Atletico La Paz | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 24:13 | 20 |
| 4 | Venados FC | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 26:21 | 19 |
| 5 | Piratas | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 16:10 | 18 |
| 6 | Zacatecas Mineros | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 23:19 | 17 |
| 7 | Cancun | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 19:15 | 17 |
| 8 | Alacranes de Durango | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 11:11 | 17 |
| 9 | Correcaminos | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 20:20 | 16 |
| 10 | Tapatio | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 17:15 | 14 |
| 11 | Dorados de Sinaloa | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 20:20 | 13 |
| 12 | Alebrijes de Oaxaca | 12 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 10:23 | 13 |
| 13 | Tlaxcala | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 19:23 | 12 |
| 14 | Jaiba Brava | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 12:19 | 11 |
| 15 | Cruz Azul Hidalgo | 11 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 11:18 | 8 |
| 16 | Tepatitlan de Morelos | 10 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 8:29 | 6 |
Promotion - Liga de Expansion MX (Apertura - Play Offs)
