Sport Picks
Tepatitlan de Morelos vs Club Atletico Morelia - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
Mexico
Liga de Expansion MX Estadio Gregorio "Tepa" Gómez, Tepatitlán 
Match Events
5'
5'
Nambo M.
6'
6'
Sub
del Campo R. In: Flores A.
Out: del Campo R.
20'
20'
Sub
Martinez J. In: Andrade A.
Out: Martinez J.
AI Match Summary
The Liga de Expansion MX game between Tepatitlan de Morelos and Club Atletico Morelia finished 1-1.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
23%
30%
47%
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Club Atletico Morelia
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
47%
/ Medium Confidence
- Look at the last few games and Club Atletico Morelia come out ahead of Tepatitlan de Morelos on wins alone.
- Club Atletico Morelia are the model's pick here, at 50%.
- Regular Liga de Expansion MX form gives a decent read on both sides.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 50.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 23%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.4%
Tepatitlan de Morelos Clean Sheet 10%
Club Atletico Morelia Clean Sheet 15%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Tepatitlan de Morelos | Club Atletico Morelia |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 32 | 30 |
| Wins | 11 | 15 |
| Draws | 9 | 5 |
| Losses | 12 | 10 |
| Goals Scored | 1.25 | 1.5 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.53 | 1.07 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.00 | 2.31 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Oct 10, 2026 Liga de Expansion MX
Tepatitlan de Morelos vs Club Atletico Morelia
1:1
Mar 15, 2026 Liga de Expansion MX
Club Atletico Morelia vs Tepatitlan de Morelos
3:2
Oct 4, 2025 Liga de Expansion MX
Tepatitlan de Morelos vs Club Atletico Morelia
3:2
Feb 1, 2025 Liga de Expansion MX
Tepatitlan de Morelos vs Club Atletico Morelia
3:1
Aug 17, 2024 Liga de Expansion MX
Club Atletico Morelia vs Tepatitlan de Morelos
2:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Tepatitlan de Morelos Compare
Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5
Club Atletico Morelia Compare
Top Goalscorer Flores A.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 2.1
Avg xA / game 1.28
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Tepatitlan de Morelos 22 / 100
Club Atletico Morelia 48 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Tepatitlan de Morelos Club Atletico Morelia
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Club Atletico Morelia Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
These sides typically produce 3.80 goals when they meet.
Tepatitlan de Morelos found the back of the net in 66% of recent matches (32 games).
Defensive concern: Club Atletico Morelia conceded in 67% of 30 recent games.
Solid form: Tepatitlan de Morelos remains unbeaten in 2 of 5 recent matches.
Scoring Trends
Tepatitlan de Morelos VS Club Atletico Morelia
1 Goals Scored 2
2.63 Goals Conceded 1
75% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 63%
63% Over 3.5 38%
Recent Form & Match History
Tepatitlan de Morelos
(Home) 10 Oct
Tepatitlan de Morelos
1 : 1 Club Atletico Morelia
03 Oct
Tepatitlan de Morelos
3 : 1 Jaiba Brava
19 Sept
Tepatitlan de Morelos
0 : 1 Zacatecas Mineros
12 Sept
Venados FC
5 : 0 Tepatitlan de Morelos
04 Sept
Tepatitlan de Morelos
1 : 4 Dorados de Sinaloa
Page 1 of 7
10 Oct
Tepatitlan de Morelos
1 : 1 Club Atletico Morelia
03 Oct
Tepatitlan de Morelos
3 : 1 Jaiba Brava
19 Sept
Tepatitlan de Morelos
0 : 1 Zacatecas Mineros
04 Sept
Tepatitlan de Morelos
1 : 4 Dorados de Sinaloa
21 Aug
Tepatitlan de Morelos
3 : 2 Tlaxcala
Page 1 of 4
Club Atletico Morelia
(Away) 10 Oct
Tepatitlan de Morelos
1 : 1 Club Atletico Morelia
04 Oct
Club Atletico Morelia
1 : 1 Tlaxcala
26 Sept
Venados FC
2 : 1 Club Atletico Morelia
20 Sept
Club Atletico Morelia
2 : 0 Leones Negros
13 Sept
Zacatecas Mineros
0 : 1 Club Atletico Morelia
Page 1 of 6
10 Oct
Tepatitlan de Morelos
1 : 1 Club Atletico Morelia
26 Sept
Venados FC
2 : 1 Club Atletico Morelia
13 Sept
Zacatecas Mineros
0 : 1 Club Atletico Morelia
29 Aug
Dorados de Sinaloa
0 : 1 Club Atletico Morelia
15 Aug
Cruz Azul Hidalgo
1 : 2 Club Atletico Morelia
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Leones Negros | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 28:17 | 24 |
| 2 | Atletico La Paz | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 28:15 | 23 |
| 3 | Club Atletico Morelia | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 22:13 | 23 |
| 4 | Venados FC | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 27:22 | 20 |
| 5 | Zacatecas Mineros | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 25:21 | 18 |
| 6 | Cancun | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 21:17 | 18 |
| 7 | Piratas | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 18:14 | 18 |
| 8 | Alacranes de Durango | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 11:11 | 18 |
| 9 | Correcaminos | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 20:20 | 16 |
| 10 | Tlaxcala | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 23:25 | 15 |
| 11 | Tapatio | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 19:19 | 14 |
| 12 | Dorados de Sinaloa | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 21:23 | 13 |
| 13 | Alebrijes de Oaxaca | 12 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 10:23 | 13 |
| 14 | Jaiba Brava | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 12:19 | 12 |
| 15 | Cruz Azul Hidalgo | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 14:19 | 11 |
| 16 | Tepatitlan de Morelos | 11 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 9:30 | 7 |
Promotion - Liga de Expansion MX (Apertura - Play Offs)
