Sport Picks

Mexico

Liga de Expansion MX 2025/2026 Estadio Gregorio "Tepa" Gómez

Tepatitlan de Morelos

2 - 1

Irapuato

Our Tip

Match Events

Mendoza B.

15'

Guzman W.

20'

Martinez R.

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Tepatitlan de Morelos in this Liga de Expansion MX 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 2-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Tepatitlan de Morelos.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%

Tepatitlan de Morelos

33%

Draws

27%

Irapuato

Draw rate projection: 33% Favored: Tepatitlan de Morelos

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / Medium Confidence

Tepatitlan de Morelos have won more games recently than Irapuato.
Win probability leans Tepatitlan de Morelos's way, sitting at 40%.
This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%

Over 1.5 Goals 91.5%

Over 2.5 Goals 25%

Over 3.5 Goals 22%

Over 4.5 Goals 10%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.400000000000006%

Tepatitlan de Morelos Clean Sheet 68%

Irapuato Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Tepatitlan de Morelos	Irapuato
Matches Played	34	31
Wins	12	11
Draws	12	11
Losses	10	9
Goals Scored	1.5	1.33
Goals Conceded	1.13	1.33
Expected Goals (xG)	1.50	1.33
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.13	1.33

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 21, 2026 Liga de Expansion MX

Tepatitlan de Morelos vs Irapuato

Possession: 50% - 51% Cards: 2 - 2

2:1

Sep 15, 2025 Liga de Expansion MX

Irapuato vs Tepatitlan de Morelos

Possession: 52% - 54% Cards: 2 - 2

0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Tepatitlan de Morelos Compare

Top Goalscorer Guzman W.

1 Goals

Assists Leader Mendoza B.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 1.15

Avg xA / game 0.75

Irapuato Compare

Top Goalscorer Gamboa J.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 1.21

Avg xA / game 0.74

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Tepatitlan de Morelos 50 / 100

Irapuato 26 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Tepatitlan de Morelos Irapuato

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick TEP Win (1)

Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No

Correct Score 1:0

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Tepatitlan de Morelos's goal record stands at 71% scoring rate across 34 recent games.

Defensive concern: Irapuato conceded in 71% of 31 recent games.

Historical meetings average 1.50 goals per match.

Tepatitlan de Morelos has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Tepatitlan de Morelos VS Irapuato

1.5 Goals Scored 1.33

1.13 Goals Conceded 1.33

100% Over 1.5 83%

25% Over 2.5 67%

25% Over 3.5 33%

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Tepatitlan de Morelos	14	7	5	2	21:10	26
2	Cancun	14	7	4	3	24:17	25
3	Club Atletico Morelia	14	7	2	5	18:12	23
4	Atletico La Paz	14	5	7	2	22:12	22
5	Jaiba Brava	14	6	3	5	15:15	21
6	Zacatecas Mineros	14	6	3	5	19:20	21
7	Tapatio	14	6	2	6	28:24	20
8	Atlante	14	5	5	4	21:17	20
9	Irapuato	14	6	2	6	27:24	20
10	Tlaxcala	14	5	5	4	16:17	20
11	Venados FC	14	4	4	6	25:25	16
12	Alebrijes de Oaxaca	14	4	4	6	20:29	16
13	Dorados de Sinaloa	14	3	4	7	17:28	13
14	Correcaminos	14	3	3	8	14:27	12
15	Leones Negros	14	2	5	7	15:25	11