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Termoli vs Fermana

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group F 2024/2025
Our Tip

Match Events

7' Event
Caliendo N.
21' Event
Valsecchi P.

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Serie D - Group F 2024/2025 matchup, with the score ending 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

39%
Termoli
30%
Draws
31%
Fermana
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Termoli

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

39% / Low Confidence
  • Termoli have won more games recently than Fermana.
  • 39% — that's where the model lands on Termoli taking it.
  • Regular Serie D - Group F 2024/2025 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 0%
Over 4.5 Goals 0%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69.4%
Termoli Clean Sheet 20%
Fermana Clean Sheet 16%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Termoli Fermana
Matches Played 36 30
Wins 6 4
Draws 19 11
Losses 11 15
Goals Scored 0.78 0.67
Goals Conceded 0.94 1.23
Expected Goals (xG) 0.92 0.94
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 13, 2025 Serie D - Group F
Termoli vs Fermana
1:1
Dec 1, 2024 Serie D - Group F
Fermana vs Termoli
2:2
Apr 12, 2015 Serie D - Group F
Termoli vs Fermana
2:2
Nov 30, 2014 Serie D - Group F
Fermana vs Termoli
2:0
Mar 2, 2014 Serie D - Group F
Termoli vs Fermana
3:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Termoli Compare

Top Goalscorer Caliendo N.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.71
Avg xA / game 0.46

Fermana Compare

Top Goalscorer Valsecchi P.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.85
Avg xA / game 0.52

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Termoli 40 / 100
Fermana 28 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Termoli Fermana

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Termoli Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Termoli scored in 64% of their last 36 outings.

Fermana let in goals in 77% of their last 30 matches.

H2H data points to 3.00 goals as a typical output.

Termoli has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Termoli VS -
0.63 Goals Scored 0
0.88 Goals Conceded 0
38% Over 1.5 0%
13% Over 2.5 0%
0% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Termoli

(Home)
03 May
Termoli
1 : 1
Aquila Calcio
26 Apr
Ostiamare
1 : 0
Termoli
19 Apr
Termoli
1 : 2
Notaresco Calcio
15 Apr
Termoli
1 : 0
Sammaurese
12 Apr
Teramo
0 : 0
Termoli
Page 1 of 8

Fermana

(Away)
04 May
Castelfidardo
1 : 0
Fermana
27 Apr
Fermana
0 : 2
Sambenedettese
17 Apr
Fermana
0 : 2
Civitanovese Calcio
13 Apr
Termoli
1 : 1
Fermana
06 Apr
Fermana
2 : 0
Avezzano
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Sambenedettese 34 21 9 4 61:21 72
2 Aquila Calcio 34 17 11 6 48:31 62
3 Teramo 34 17 9 8 51:33 60
4 Calcio Chieti 34 16 11 7 52:39 58
5 Fossombrone 34 12 14 8 44:36 50
6 Ancona 34 13 8 13 35:40 47
7 Avezzano 34 13 7 14 41:43 46
8 Castelfidardo 34 12 9 13 39:34 45
9 Atletico Ascoli 34 10 13 11 35:39 43
10 Vigor Senigallia 34 9 15 10 36:38 42
11 Termoli 34 9 14 11 37:44 41
12 Recanatese 34 10 10 14 42:53 40
13 AS Sora 34 9 13 12 32:39 40
14 Notaresco Calcio 34 10 8 16 37:45 38
15 Civitanovese Calcio 34 8 13 13 31:39 37
16 Roma City 34 8 11 15 32:36 35
17 Isernia 34 8 10 16 32:57 34
18 Fermana 34 6 11 17 24:42 27
Promotion - Serie D - Group F 2024/2025 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group F 2024/2025 (Play Out)