Sport Picks

Estonia

Esiliiga 2004

TVMK Tallinn II

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Tervis Parnu play TVMK Tallinn II in the Esiliiga 2004. It looks like a close match. Recently, Tervis Parnu averaged 2.23 goals scored and 1.57 conceded. TVMK Tallinn II averaged 1.61 goals scored and 2.79 conceded. In past meetings, Tervis Parnu won 3, TVMK Tallinn II won 1, and they drew 1. Their last match on Oct 25, 2005 ended 5:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 3.75 for Tervis Parnu and 2.94 for TVMK Tallinn II. This points to a Tervis Parnu double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

51%

Tervis Parnu

18%

Draws

31%

TVMK Tallinn II

Draw rate projection: 18% Favored: Tervis Parnu

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

78% / High Confidence

Tervis Parnu picked up more points recently compared to TVMK Tallinn II.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (3.75 vs 2.94 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 90%

Over 1.5 Goals 85%

Over 2.5 Goals 78%

Over 3.5 Goals 47%

Over 4.5 Goals 23%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 60%

Tervis Parnu Clean Sheet 10%

TVMK Tallinn II Clean Sheet 10%

First Half Goal 77%

Second Half Goal 81%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Tervis Parnu	TVMK Tallinn II
Matches Played	30	33
Wins	12	9
Draws	7	4
Losses	11	20
Goals Scored	2.23	1.61
Goals Conceded	1.57	2.79
Expected Goals (xG)	5.00	1.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	4.00	2.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 25, 2005 Esiliiga

Tervis Parnu vs TVMK Tallinn II

Possession: 49% - 44% Cards: 3 - 2

5:0

Jul 30, 2005 Esiliiga

TVMK Tallinn II vs Tervis Parnu

Possession: 51% - 53% Cards: 4 - 0

0:0

Jun 21, 2005 Esiliiga

Tervis Parnu vs TVMK Tallinn II

Possession: 50% - 56% Cards: 2 - 4

3:2

Mar 15, 2005 Esiliiga

TVMK Tallinn II vs Tervis Parnu

Possession: 48% - 58% Cards: 4 - 3

1:0

Oct 24, 2004 Esiliiga

Tervis Parnu vs TVMK Tallinn II

Possession: 54% - 45% Cards: 3 - 1

4:1

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Tervis Parnu 48 / 100

TVMK Tallinn II 30 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Tervis Parnu TVMK Tallinn II

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Tervis Parnu or Draw (1X)

Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals

First Half Result Home Win (HT)

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +18.8%

2.33

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +8.4%

1.39

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Tervis Parnu attacking → ← attacking TVMK Tallinn II

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Tervis Parnu scored in 77% of their last 30 games.

TVMK Tallinn II let in goals in 91% of their last 33 matches.

Games between these two average 3.20 goals.

Tervis Parnu went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

TVMK Tallinn II lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

43 Points in last 5 31

5.00 Goals expected (xG) 1.88

4.00 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 2.50

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Tammeka Tartu	28	17	7	4	74:34	58
2	Levadia U21	28	17	6	5	75:37	57
3	Tervis Parnu	28	18	2	8	70:50	56
4	Tallina JK Dunamo	28	12	2	14	49:67	38
5	Kuressaare	28	11	2	15	56:70	35
6	Lasnamae	28	10	2	16	66:66	32
7	TVMK Tallinn II	28	8	3	17	46:54	27
8	JK Jalgpallihaigla	28	5	4	19	29:87	19