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Thailand vs Philippines

Asia Asia

ASEAN Championship 2024 Rajamangala Stadium, Bangkok
Mon, Dec 30, 2024
3 - 1
01:00 PM
Our Tip

Match Events

21'
Davis B.
37' Event
Chamratsamee P.
51'
Sub
Baldisimo M. In: Rontini C.
Out: Baldisimo M.

AI Match Summary

Thailand in this ASEAN Championship 2024 tie, finishing 3-1. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

46%
Thailand
15%
Draws
39%
Philippines
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Thailand

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

39% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Thailand lately — more wins on the board than Philippines.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
  • Thailand have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Thailand, who have won 3 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Thailand have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 50%
Over 4.5 Goals 23%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 74.6%
Thailand Clean Sheet 16%
Philippines Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Thailand Philippines
Matches Played 35 30
Wins 22 10
Draws 5 6
Losses 8 14
Goals Scored 2.26 1.57
Goals Conceded 1 1.53
Expected Goals (xG) 1.81 1.44
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 4, 2026 ASEAN Championship
Philippines vs Thailand
0:1
Dec 30, 2024 ASEAN Championship
Thailand vs Philippines
3:1
Dec 27, 2024 ASEAN Championship
Philippines vs Thailand
2:1
Oct 11, 2024 Kings Cup (Thailand)
Thailand vs Philippines
3:1
Dec 26, 2022 ASEAN Championship
Thailand vs Philippines
4:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Thailand Compare

Top Goalscorer Chamratsamee P.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Gustavsson P.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.39
Avg xA / game 0.91

Philippines Compare

Top Goalscorer Kristensen B.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.31
Avg xA / game 0.8

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Thailand 31 / 100
Philippines 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Thailand Philippines

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Philippines Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Thailand scored in 91% of their last 35 games.

Defensive concern: Philippines conceded in 90% of 30 recent games.

Historical meetings average 3.20 goals per match.

Thailand went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Thailand VS Philippines
2.38 Goals Scored 2.25
0.63 Goals Conceded 1.25
75% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 50%
50% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Thailand

(Home)
26 Aug
Vietnam
2 : 2
Thailand
22 Aug
Thailand
0 : 2
Vietnam
18 Aug
Thailand
1 : 2
Singapore
15 Aug
Singapore
1 : 3
Thailand
08 Aug
Thailand
2 : 0
Myanmar
Page 1 of 7

Philippines

(Away)
08 Aug
Malaysia
1 : 0
Philippines
04 Aug
Philippines
0 : 1
Thailand
01 Aug
Laos
1 : 4
Philippines
28 Jul
Philippines
1 : 4
Myanmar
09 Jun
Philippines
5 : 1
Myanmar
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Semi-finals
Singapore 1
Vietnam 5
Philippines 3
Thailand 4
Final
Vietnam 5
Thailand 3