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Thailand vs Philippines

Asia Asia

ASEAN Championship 2024 Rajamangala Stadium
Mon, Dec 30, 2024
3 - 1
01:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Thailand play Philippines in the ASEAN Championship 2024. Thailand are favorites here. Recently, Thailand averaged 2.24 goals scored and 1.07 conceded. Philippines averaged 1.6 goals scored and 1.47 conceded. In past meetings, Thailand won 4, Philippines won 1, and they drew 0. Their last match on Dec 30, 2024 ended 3:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.63 for Thailand and 2.06 for Philippines. This points to a Thailand double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

56%
Thailand
15%
Draws
29%
Philippines
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Thailand

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

82% / High Confidence
  • Thailand picked up more points recently compared to Philippines.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.63 vs 2.06 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 63%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 84%
Over 2.5 Goals 63%
Over 3.5 Goals 38%
Over 4.5 Goals 19%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 64%
Thailand Clean Sheet 10%
Philippines Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 76%
Second Half Goal 80%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Thailand Philippines
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 18 11
Draws 5 7
Losses 6 12
Goals Scored 2.24 1.6
Goals Conceded 1.07 1.47
Expected Goals (xG) 2.25 3.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.88 1.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Dec 30, 2024 ASEAN Championship
Thailand vs Philippines
3:1
Dec 27, 2024 ASEAN Championship
Philippines vs Thailand
2:1
Oct 11, 2024 Kings Cup (Thailand)
Thailand vs Philippines
3:1
Dec 26, 2022 ASEAN Championship
Thailand vs Philippines
4:0
Dec 14, 2021 ASEAN Championship
Philippines vs Thailand
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Thailand Compare

Top Goalscorer Chamratsamee P.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Gustavsson P.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.73
Avg xA / game 1.13

Philippines Compare

Top Goalscorer Kristensen B.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 2.95
Avg xA / game 1.81

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Thailand 52 / 100
Philippines 28 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Thailand Philippines

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Thailand Win (1)
Secondary Pick Thailand & Over 2.5
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +16.5%
2.08
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +10.3%
1.75
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Thailand attacking → ← attacking Philippines

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Thailand scored in 86% of their last 29 games.

Philippines let in goals in 87% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 3.60 goals.

Thailand went unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 games.

Philippines lost 0 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

59 Points in last 5 40
2.25 Goals expected (xG) 3.25
0.88 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.00