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Thailand vs Sri Lanka

Asia Asia

Asian Cup Rajamangala Stadium, Bangkok
Thailand Logo

Thailand

1 - 0
FT
Sri Lanka Logo

Sri Lanka

Our Tip

Match Events

37'
Durrant S.
39'
Dekker W.
43' Event
Gustavsson P.
Assist: Mueanta S.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 0-4. The second leg ended 1-0.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
Thailand
15%
Draws
54%
Sri Lanka
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Sri Lanka

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

54% / Medium Confidence
  • Thailand carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 54% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • Thailand have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Thailand, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • Thailand have won 5 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 35.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 16%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 66.6%
Thailand Clean Sheet 18%
Sri Lanka Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Thailand Sri Lanka
Matches Played 33 29
Wins 19 12
Draws 4 5
Losses 10 12
Goals Scored 2.03 1.07
Goals Conceded 1.06 1.21
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 1.31
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Nov 18, 2025 Asian Cup
Sri Lanka vs Thailand
0:4
Mar 25, 2025 Asian Cup
Thailand vs Sri Lanka
1:0
Jun 11, 2022 Asian Cup
Sri Lanka vs Thailand
0:2
May 25, 2001 World Championship
Sri Lanka vs Thailand
0:3
May 12, 2001 World Championship
Thailand vs Sri Lanka
4:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Thailand Compare

Top Goalscorer Gustavsson P.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75

Sri Lanka Compare

Avg xG / game 1.19
Avg xA / game 0.73

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Thailand 32 / 100
Sri Lanka 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Thailand Sri Lanka

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Sri Lanka Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Thailand's goal record stands at 88% scoring rate across 33 recent games.

H2H data points to 3.20 goals as a typical output.

Sri Lanka has conceded goals in 69% of their last 29 outings.

Thailand went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Thailand VS Sri Lanka
2 Goals Scored 2
0.63 Goals Conceded 1
75% Over 1.5 83%
50% Over 2.5 67%
38% Over 3.5 33%

Recent Form & Match History

Thailand

(Home)
05 Oct
Indonesia
3 : 2
Thailand
02 Oct
Thailand
1 : 2
Philippines
29 Sept
Thailand
2 : 0
Vietnam
26 Sept
Pakistan
0 : 4
Thailand
26 Aug
Vietnam
2 : 2
Thailand
Page 1 of 7

Sri Lanka

(Away)
05 Oct
Mauritius
2 : 3
Sri Lanka
02 Oct
Mauritius
3 : 0
Sri Lanka
30 Sept
Seychelles
0 : 2
Sri Lanka
27 Sept
Seychelles
0 : 3
Sri Lanka
08 Jun
Sri Lanka
4 : 1
Bhutan
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Tajikistan 6 4 2 0 14:3 14
2 Philippines 6 4 2 0 16:6 14
3 Maldives 6 1 0 5 3:13 3
4 Timor-Leste 6 1 0 5 4:15 3
Promotion - Asian Cup (Main)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Yemen 6 4 2 0 20:1 14
2 Lebanon 6 4 1 1 14:2 13
3 Bhutan 6 1 1 4 4:16 4
4 Brunei 6 1 0 5 3:22 3
Promotion - Asian Cup (Main)

League Standings (Group 3)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Singapore 6 4 2 0 8:4 14
2 Hong Kong 6 2 2 2 8:8 8
3 Bangladesh 6 1 2 3 6:8 5
4 India 6 1 2 3 4:6 5
Promotion - Asian Cup (Main)

League Standings (Group 4)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Thailand 6 5 0 1 16:5 15
2 Turkmenistan 6 4 0 2 11:7 12
3 Sri Lanka 6 3 0 3 8:9 9
4 Chinese Taipei 6 0 0 6 5:19 0
Promotion - Asian Cup (Main)

League Standings (Group 5)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Syria 6 6 0 0 21:2 18
2 Myanmar 6 4 0 2 8:11 12
3 Afghanistan 6 0 2 4 4:11 2
4 Pakistan 6 0 2 4 2:11 2
Promotion - Asian Cup (Main)

League Standings (Group 6)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Vietnam 6 6 0 0 17:2 18
2 Malaysia 6 3 0 3 10:10 9
3 Laos 6 2 0 4 4:16 6
4 Nepal 6 1 0 5 5:8 3
Promotion - Asian Cup (Main)