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Thailand vs Vietnam - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Asia Asia

ASEAN Championship Rajamangala Stadium, Bangkok
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Match Events

57'
Nguyen Thanh Chung
58'
Sub
Bezerra R. In: Nguyen Hai Long
Out: Bezerra R.
58'
Sub
Le Pham Thanh Long In: Nguyen Quang Hai
Out: Le Pham Thanh Long

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 2-2. The second leg ended 0-2.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Thailand
20%
Draws
40%
Vietnam
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

20% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Vietnam come out ahead of Thailand on wins alone.
  • Model gives Thailand a 42% chance of winning this.
  • Vietnam arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Vietnam, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.6%
Thailand Clean Sheet 17%
Vietnam Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Thailand Vietnam
Matches Played 33 34
Wins 20 29
Draws 4 3
Losses 9 2
Goals Scored 2.15 2.71
Goals Conceded 1.09 0.62
Expected Goals (xG) 1.19 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 29, 2026 FIFA ASEAN Cup
Thailand vs Vietnam
2:0
Aug 26, 2026 ASEAN Championship
Vietnam vs Thailand
2:2
Aug 22, 2026 ASEAN Championship
Thailand vs Vietnam
0:2
Jan 5, 2025 ASEAN Championship
Thailand vs Vietnam
2:3
Jan 2, 2025 ASEAN Championship
Vietnam vs Thailand
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Thailand Compare

Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.59

Vietnam Compare

Top Goalscorer Nguyen Hai Long
1 Goals
Assists Leader Nguyen Quang Hai
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Thailand 41 / 100
Vietnam 37 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Thailand Vietnam

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Thailand's goal record stands at 91% scoring rate across 33 recent games.

These sides typically produce 3.20 goals when they meet.

Recent resilience: Thailand stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Vietnam's defensive record shows goals conceded in 47% of 34 matches.

Scoring Trends

Thailand VS Vietnam
2 Goals Scored 1.88
0.88 Goals Conceded 0.38
88% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 38%
38% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Thailand

(Home)
05 Oct
Indonesia
3 : 2
Thailand
02 Oct
Thailand
1 : 2
Philippines
29 Sept
Thailand
2 : 0
Vietnam
26 Sept
Pakistan
0 : 4
Thailand
26 Aug
Vietnam
2 : 2
Thailand
Page 1 of 7

Vietnam

(Away)
05 Oct
Malaysia
1 : 0
Vietnam
02 Oct
Vietnam
4 : 2
Pakistan
29 Sept
Thailand
2 : 0
Vietnam
26 Sept
Vietnam
1 : 0
Philippines
26 Aug
Vietnam
2 : 2
Thailand
Page 1 of 7

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Semi-finals
Vietnam 4
Malaysia 0
Thailand 4
Singapore 3
Final
Vietnam 4
Thailand 2