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Timor-Leste U23 vs Thailand U23 Prediction & H2H Stats

Asia Asia

ASEAN Championship U23 Patriot Stadium, Bekasi
Timor-Leste U23 Logo

Timor-Leste U23

0 - 4
FT
Thailand U23 Logo

Thailand U23

Our Tip

Match Events

14' Event
Burapha Y.
Assist: Namphueng S.
40' Event
Phochai T.
46'
Sub
Namphueng S. In: Puethong T.
Out: Namphueng S.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The ASEAN Championship U23 game between Timor-Leste U23 and Thailand U23 finished 0-4, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Thailand U23.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

34%
Timor-Leste U23
15%
Draws
51%
Thailand U23
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Thailand U23

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

34% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Thailand U23 come out ahead of Timor-Leste U23 on wins alone.
  • Timor-Leste U23 are the model's pick here, at 70%.
  • European nights carry their own weight — this ASEAN Championship U23 fixture won't be treated like a routine game.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 79%).
  • Thailand U23 have won 5 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 79%
Over 3.5 Goals 69%
Over 4.5 Goals 31%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 67.8%
Timor-Leste U23 Clean Sheet 20%
Thailand U23 Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Timor-Leste U23 Thailand U23
Matches Played 30 42
Wins 7 19
Draws 3 7
Losses 20 16
Goals Scored 1.27 1.81
Goals Conceded 3.13 1.31
Expected Goals (xG) 1.20 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 19, 2025 ASEAN Championship U23
Timor-Leste U23 vs Thailand U23
0:4
Aug 17, 2017 Southeast Asian Games
Thailand U23 vs Timor-Leste U23
1:0
Jun 1, 2015 Southeast Asian Games
Thailand U23 vs Timor-Leste U23
1:0
Sep 18, 2014 Asian Games
Thailand U23 vs Timor-Leste U23
3:0
Dec 7, 2013 Southeast Asian Games
Timor-Leste U23 vs Thailand U23
1:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Timor-Leste U23 Compare

Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.6

Thailand U23 Compare

Top Goalscorer Burapha Y.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Phochai T.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Timor-Leste U23 67 / 100
Thailand U23 14 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Timor-Leste U23 Thailand U23

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Timor-Leste U23 Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Timor-Leste U23 found the back of the net in 66% of recent matches (29 games).

Games between these two average 2.60 goals.

Thailand U23's recent record shows 3 losses from the last 5 matches.

Thailand U23's defensive record shows goals conceded in 57% of 42 matches.

Scoring Trends

Timor-Leste U23 VS Thailand U23
3 Goals Scored 1.38
3 Goals Conceded 1.13
100% Over 1.5 75%
100% Over 2.5 63%
100% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Timor-Leste U23

(Home)
09 Sept
Timor-Leste U23
6 : 0
Northern Mariana Islands U23
06 Sept
Timor-Leste U23
0 : 6
Australia U23
03 Sept
China U23
2 : 1
Timor-Leste U23
19 Jul
Timor-Leste U23
0 : 4
Thailand U23
16 Jul
Myanmar U23
4 : 4
Timor-Leste U23
Page 1 of 6

Thailand U23

(Away)
26 Sept
China U23
3 : 0
Thailand U23
23 Sept
Japan U23
3 : 0
Thailand U23
20 Sept
Hong Kong U23
1 : 5
Thailand U23
16 Sept
Thailand U23
3 : 2
Kyrgyzstan U23
09 Jun
Thailand U23
2 : 5
United Arab Emirates U23
Page 1 of 9

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Indonesia U23 3 2 1 0 9:0 7
2 Philippines U23 3 2 0 1 4:1 6
3 Malaysia U23 3 1 1 1 7:3 4
4 Brunei U23 3 0 0 3 1:17 0
Promotion - ASEAN Championship U23 (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Vietnam U23 2 2 0 0 5:1 6
2 Cambodia U23 2 0 1 1 2:3 1
3 Laos U23 2 0 1 1 1:4 1
Promotion - ASEAN Championship U23 (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 3)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Thailand U23 2 1 1 0 4:0 4
2 Myanmar U23 2 0 2 0 4:4 2
3 Timor-Leste U23 2 0 1 1 4:8 1
Promotion - ASEAN Championship U23 (Play Offs)