Sport Picks
Tlaxcala vs Tepatitlan de Morelos
Mexico
Liga de Expansion MX 2025/2026 Estadio Tlahuicole, Tlaxcala 
Match Events
23'
23'
Venegas J.
46'
46'
Sub
Mendoza B. In: Gomez J.
Out: Mendoza B.
53'
53'
Blanco J.
AI Match Summary
Tlaxcala in this Liga de Expansion MX 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Tlaxcala.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
59%
15%
26%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Tlaxcala
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
59%
/ Medium Confidence
- Form's been kind to Tepatitlan de Morelos lately — more wins on the board than Tlaxcala.
- 59% — that's where the model lands on Tlaxcala taking it.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 75%
Over 4.5 Goals 34%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.8%
Tlaxcala Clean Sheet 13%
Tepatitlan de Morelos Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Tlaxcala | Tepatitlan de Morelos |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 30 |
| Wins | 7 | 11 |
| Draws | 9 | 7 |
| Losses | 13 | 12 |
| Goals Scored | 1.21 | 1.2 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.83 | 1.53 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 2.38 | 1.69 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Aug 21, 2026 Liga de Expansion MX
Tepatitlan de Morelos vs Tlaxcala
3:2
Mar 1, 2026 Liga de Expansion MX
Tlaxcala vs Tepatitlan de Morelos
1:0
Sep 20, 2025 Liga de Expansion MX
Tepatitlan de Morelos vs Tlaxcala
1:2
Jan 26, 2025 Liga de Expansion MX
Tlaxcala vs Tepatitlan de Morelos
2:2
Aug 11, 2024 Liga de Expansion MX
Tepatitlan de Morelos vs Tlaxcala
0:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Tlaxcala Compare
Top Goalscorer Silva J.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.83
Avg xA / game 1.19
Tepatitlan de Morelos Compare
Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 0.94
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Tlaxcala 84 / 100
Tepatitlan de Morelos 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Tlaxcala Tepatitlan de Morelos
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Tlaxcala Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Attacking prowess: Tlaxcala scored in 72% of their last 29 outings.
Tepatitlan de Morelos let in goals in 67% of their last 30 matches.
Historical meetings average 2.60 goals per match.
Tlaxcala went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Tlaxcala VS Tepatitlan de Morelos
1.5 Goals Scored 1
2.38 Goals Conceded 3.25
100% Over 1.5 75%
75% Over 2.5 75%
75% Over 3.5 75%
Recent Form & Match History
Tlaxcala
(Home) 20 Sept
Tapatio
4 : 0 Tlaxcala
12 Sept
Tlaxcala
3 : 1 Jaiba Brava
05 Sept
Alacranes de Durango
1 : 1 Tlaxcala
29 Aug
Tlaxcala
3 : 1 Venados FC
21 Aug
Tepatitlan de Morelos
3 : 2 Tlaxcala
Page 1 of 6
12 Sept
Tlaxcala
3 : 1 Jaiba Brava
29 Aug
Tlaxcala
3 : 1 Venados FC
06 Aug
Tlaxcala
0 : 2 Alebrijes de Oaxaca
25 Jul
Tlaxcala
2 : 4 Leones Negros
18 Apr
Tlaxcala
2 : 2 Venados FC
Page 1 of 3
Tepatitlan de Morelos
(Away) 19 Sept
Tepatitlan de Morelos
0 : 1 Zacatecas Mineros
12 Sept
Venados FC
5 : 0 Tepatitlan de Morelos
04 Sept
Tepatitlan de Morelos
1 : 4 Dorados de Sinaloa
29 Aug
Cruz Azul Hidalgo
6 : 0 Tepatitlan de Morelos
21 Aug
Tepatitlan de Morelos
3 : 2 Tlaxcala
Page 1 of 6
12 Sept
Venados FC
5 : 0 Tepatitlan de Morelos
29 Aug
Cruz Azul Hidalgo
6 : 0 Tepatitlan de Morelos
14 Aug
Alebrijes de Oaxaca
1 : 0 Tepatitlan de Morelos
01 Aug
Correcaminos
3 : 1 Tepatitlan de Morelos
31 May
Jaiba Brava
4 : 3 Tepatitlan de Morelos
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tepatitlan de Morelos | 14 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 21:10 | 26 |
| 2 | Cancun | 14 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 24:17 | 25 |
| 3 | Club Atletico Morelia | 14 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 18:12 | 23 |
| 4 | Atletico La Paz | 14 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 22:12 | 22 |
| 5 | Jaiba Brava | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 15:15 | 21 |
| 6 | Zacatecas Mineros | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 19:20 | 21 |
| 7 | Tapatio | 14 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 28:24 | 20 |
| 8 | Atlante | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 21:17 | 20 |
| 9 | Irapuato | 14 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 27:24 | 20 |
| 10 | Tlaxcala | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 16:17 | 20 |
| 11 | Venados FC | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 25:25 | 16 |
| 12 | Alebrijes de Oaxaca | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 20:29 | 16 |
| 13 | Dorados de Sinaloa | 14 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 17:28 | 13 |
| 14 | Correcaminos | 14 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 14:27 | 12 |
| 15 | Leones Negros | 14 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 15:25 | 11 |
Promotion - Liga de Expansion MX 2025/2026 (Clausura - Play Offs)
