Sport Picks
Tlaxcala vs Venados FC - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
Mexico
Liga de Expansion MX Estadio Tlahuicole, Tlaxcala 
Match Events
11'
11'
Garcia E.
17'
17'
Montelongo M.
17'
17'
Vazquez B.
AI Match Summary
Tlaxcala in this Liga de Expansion MX matchup, with the score ending 3-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Tlaxcala.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
38%
20%
42%
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Venados FC
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
42%
/ Low Confidence
- Form's been kind to Venados FC lately — more wins on the board than Tlaxcala.
- 42% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
- Regular Liga de Expansion MX form gives a decent read on both sides.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 81%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 100%
Over 2.5 Goals 81%
Over 3.5 Goals 75%
Over 4.5 Goals 34%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 78.6%
Tlaxcala Clean Sheet 10%
Venados FC Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Tlaxcala | Venados FC |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 28 | 29 |
| Wins | 8 | 11 |
| Draws | 8 | 6 |
| Losses | 12 | 12 |
| Goals Scored | 1.36 | 1.97 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.86 | 1.79 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 2.13 | 2.19 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Aug 29, 2026 Liga de Expansion MX
Tlaxcala vs Venados FC
3:1
Apr 18, 2026 Liga de Expansion MX
Tlaxcala vs Venados FC
2:2
Nov 7, 2025 Liga de Expansion MX
Venados FC vs Tlaxcala
5:1
Apr 12, 2025 Liga de Expansion MX
Venados FC vs Tlaxcala
2:1
Oct 27, 2024 Liga de Expansion MX
Tlaxcala vs Venados FC
1:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Tlaxcala Compare
Top Goalscorer Alvarez D.
2 Goals Assists Leader Govea I.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.64
Avg xA / game 1.06
Venados FC Compare
Avg xG / game 1.99
Avg xA / game 1.22
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Tlaxcala 30 / 100
Venados FC 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Tlaxcala Venados FC
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Venados FC Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Venados FC's defensive record shows goals conceded in 90% of 29 matches.
Games between these two average 3.80 goals.
Tlaxcala found the back of the net in 75% of recent matches (28 games).
Tlaxcala went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Tlaxcala VS Venados FC
1.88 Goals Scored 2.5
1.88 Goals Conceded 2.38
100% Over 1.5 100%
75% Over 2.5 100%
75% Over 3.5 75%
Recent Form & Match History
Tlaxcala
(Home) 04 Oct
Club Atletico Morelia
1 : 1 Tlaxcala
26 Sept
Tlaxcala
4 : 1 Cancun
20 Sept
Tapatio
4 : 0 Tlaxcala
12 Sept
Tlaxcala
3 : 1 Jaiba Brava
05 Sept
Alacranes de Durango
1 : 1 Tlaxcala
Page 1 of 6
26 Sept
Tlaxcala
4 : 1 Cancun
12 Sept
Tlaxcala
3 : 1 Jaiba Brava
29 Aug
Tlaxcala
3 : 1 Venados FC
06 Aug
Tlaxcala
0 : 2 Alebrijes de Oaxaca
25 Jul
Tlaxcala
2 : 4 Leones Negros
Page 1 of 3
Venados FC
(Away) 03 Oct
Atletico La Paz
1 : 2 Venados FC
26 Sept
Venados FC
2 : 1 Club Atletico Morelia
19 Sept
Piratas
2 : 1 Venados FC
12 Sept
Venados FC
5 : 0 Tepatitlan de Morelos
06 Sept
Jaiba Brava
4 : 3 Venados FC
Page 1 of 6
03 Oct
Atletico La Paz
1 : 2 Venados FC
19 Sept
Piratas
2 : 1 Venados FC
06 Sept
Jaiba Brava
4 : 3 Venados FC
29 Aug
Tlaxcala
3 : 1 Venados FC
15 Aug
Zacatecas Mineros
5 : 1 Venados FC
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Leones Negros | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 27:16 | 23 |
| 2 | Club Atletico Morelia | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 21:12 | 22 |
| 3 | Atletico La Paz | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 24:13 | 20 |
| 4 | Venados FC | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 26:21 | 19 |
| 5 | Piratas | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 16:10 | 18 |
| 6 | Zacatecas Mineros | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 23:19 | 17 |
| 7 | Cancun | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 19:15 | 17 |
| 8 | Alacranes de Durango | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 11:11 | 17 |
| 9 | Correcaminos | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 20:20 | 16 |
| 10 | Tapatio | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 17:15 | 14 |
| 11 | Dorados de Sinaloa | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 20:20 | 13 |
| 12 | Alebrijes de Oaxaca | 12 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 10:23 | 13 |
| 13 | Tlaxcala | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 19:23 | 12 |
| 14 | Jaiba Brava | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 12:19 | 11 |
| 15 | Cruz Azul Hidalgo | 11 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 11:18 | 8 |
| 16 | Tepatitlan de Morelos | 10 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 8:29 | 6 |
Promotion - Liga de Expansion MX (Apertura - Play Offs)
