Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Tluchowo vs Lipno Steszew

Poland Poland

III Liga - Group II 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

53' Event
Zaborowski A.
Assist: Kaczmar M.
61' Event
Kmiecik M.
63' Event
Kaczmar M.

AI Match Summary

The III Liga - Group II 2025/2026 game between Tluchowo and Lipno Steszew finished 3-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Tluchowo.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

64%
Tluchowo
15%
Draws
21%
Lipno Steszew
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Tluchowo

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

64% / High Confidence
  • Lipno Steszew carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Tluchowo are the model's pick here, at 50%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 62.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 28%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 74.2%
Tluchowo Clean Sheet 10%
Lipno Steszew Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Tluchowo Lipno Steszew
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 8 10
Draws 5 4
Losses 16 15
Goals Scored 1.24 1.24
Goals Conceded 2.1 1.76
Expected Goals (xG) 2.19 2.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 27, 2026 III Liga - Group II
Tluchowo vs Lipno Steszew
3:1
Sep 6, 2025 III Liga - Group II
Lipno Steszew vs Tluchowo
0:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Tluchowo Compare

Top Goalscorer Zaborowski A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Kmiecik M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.68
Avg xA / game 1.09

Lipno Steszew Compare

Top Goalscorer Chilinski K.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 2.16
Avg xA / game 1.32

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Tluchowo 47 / 100
Lipno Steszew 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Tluchowo Lipno Steszew

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Tluchowo Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Tluchowo scored in 69% of their last 29 games.

Lipno Steszew has conceded goals in 79% of their last 29 outings.

Historical meetings average 3.00 goals per match.

Solid form: Tluchowo remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Tluchowo VS Lipno Steszew
3 Goals Scored 1.75
3 Goals Conceded 1.38
100% Over 1.5 88%
100% Over 2.5 63%
100% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Tluchowo

(Home)
18 Jul
GKS Belchatow
4 : 1
Tluchowo
30 May
Elana Torun
2 : 5
Tluchowo
22 May
Tluchowo
1 : 4
Blekitni Stargard
16 May
Wda Swiecie
1 : 2
Tluchowo
13 May
Tluchowo
3 : 1
Lech Poznan II
Page 1 of 6

Lipno Steszew

(Away)
19 Sept
Lipno Steszew
2 : 1
Baltyk Koszalin
12 Sept
Kotwica Kornik
4 : 1
Lipno Steszew
05 Sept
Lipno Steszew
1 : 3
Swinoujscie
28 Aug
Luzino
2 : 1
Lipno Steszew
22 Aug
Lipno Steszew
2 : 3
Polonia Sroda Wielkopol
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Zawisza 34 25 5 4 73:23 80
2 Luzino 34 24 4 6 79:39 76
3 Polonia Sroda Wielkopol 34 20 6 8 67:43 66
4 Lipno Steszew 34 15 6 13 47:54 51
5 Notec Czarnkow 34 14 7 13 49:46 49
6 Lech Poznan II 34 14 7 13 67:54 49
7 Elana Torun 34 14 7 13 49:55 49
8 Swinoujscie 34 14 7 13 48:52 49
9 Wda Swiecie 34 14 6 14 44:66 48
10 Unia Swarzedz 34 13 8 13 47:41 47
11 Kluczevia Stargard 34 13 7 14 54:43 46
12 Blekitni Stargard 34 12 9 13 56:51 45
13 Victoria Wrzesnia 34 13 3 18 41:46 42
14 Pogon Szczecin II 34 12 5 17 75:66 41
15 Nowe Skalmierzyce 34 10 9 15 35:46 39
16 Cartusia Kartuzy 34 11 5 18 38:51 38
17 Tluchowo 34 8 7 19 37:66 31
18 Wybrzeze Rewalskie Rewal 34 3 6 25 20:84 15
Promotion - Division 2 (Main)
Promotion - Division 2 2025/2026 (Relegation - Play Offs)