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Tobol 2 vs Shakhter Karagandy

Kazakhstan Kazakhstan

First League
Our Tip

Match Events

43' Event
Litosh A.
Assist: Ospanov R.
86' Event
Kalybayev D.
Assist: Nusip A.

AI Match Summary

Shakhter Karagandy in this First League matchup, with the score ending 0-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Shakhter Karagandy.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

27%
Tobol 2
15%
Draws
58%
Shakhter Karagandy
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Shakhter Karagandy

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

58% / Medium Confidence
  • Shakhter Karagandy have won more games recently than Tobol 2.
  • Shakhter Karagandy are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • Regular First League form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28.8%
Tobol 2 Clean Sheet 10%
Shakhter Karagandy Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Tobol 2 Shakhter Karagandy
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 5 24
Draws 7 3
Losses 18 3
Goals Scored 1.63 2.7
Goals Conceded 2.37 0.5
Expected Goals (xG) 0.81 2.56
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 31, 2026 First League
Tobol 2 vs Shakhter Karagandy
0:2
May 1, 2026 First League
Shakhter Karagandy vs Tobol 2
3:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Tobol 2 Compare

Avg xG / game 0.62
Avg xA / game 0.41

Shakhter Karagandy Compare

Top Goalscorer Litosh A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Kalybayev D.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.33
Avg xA / game 1.42

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Tobol 2 10 / 100
Shakhter Karagandy 95 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Tobol 2 Shakhter Karagandy

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Shakhter Karagandy Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:3
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Tobol 2 found the back of the net in 70% of recent matches (30 games).

Games between these two average 2.50 goals.

Shakhter Karagandy has conceded goals in 27% of their last 30 outings.

Tobol 2 has registered 2 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Tobol 2 VS Shakhter Karagandy
1.38 Goals Scored 2.88
2.25 Goals Conceded 0.25
88% Over 1.5 75%
75% Over 2.5 50%
50% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Tobol 2

(Home)
19 Sept
Tobol 2
3 : 0
Kaspij Aktau 2
11 Sept
FC Ekibastuz
1 : 5
Tobol 2
03 Sept
Tobol 2
0 : 1
Kairat Almaty 2
28 Aug
Taraz
3 : 1
Tobol 2
20 Aug
Tobol 2
3 : 4
Khan Tengri
Page 1 of 6

Shakhter Karagandy

(Away)
17 Sept
Shakhter Karagandy
0 : 0
Taraz
11 Sept
Jaiyq
1 : 2
Shakhter Karagandy
03 Sept
Shakhter Karagandy
4 : 0
Khan Tengri
27 Aug
Yelimay Semey 2
0 : 3
Shakhter Karagandy
21 Aug
Shakhter Karagandy
4 : 0
FC Astana 2
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Shakhter Karagandy 23 20 2 1 64:8 62
2 Kairat Almaty 2 23 17 5 1 66:12 56
3 Turan 23 16 2 5 51:21 50
4 Akademiya Ontustik 23 13 4 6 36:27 43
5 FC Astana 2 23 10 3 10 42:43 33
6 Jaiyq 23 9 4 10 21:26 31
7 Taraz 23 8 6 9 30:32 30
8 FC Ekibastuz 23 7 5 11 31:53 26
9 Kaspij Aktau 2 23 7 4 12 29:41 25
10 Khan Tengri 23 7 4 12 29:44 25
11 Arys 23 7 3 13 29:43 24
12 Aktobe 2 23 6 5 12 38:69 23
13 Tobol 2 23 4 4 15 40:57 16
14 Yelimay Semey 2 23 3 3 17 17:47 12
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