Sport Picks
Tobol vs Kaisar Kyzylorda - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
Kazakhstan
Premier League Centralnyj Stadion, Kostanay 
Match Events
4'
4'
Myakish M.
Assist: Tagybergen A.
13'
13'
Mukhammed A.
Assist: Idrisov N.
27'
27'
Marochkin A.
Assist: Tagybergen A.
AI Match Summary
The Premier League game between Tobol and Kaisar Kyzylorda finished 3-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Tobol.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
59%
15%
26%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Tobol
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
59%
/ Medium Confidence
- Look at the last few games and Tobol come out ahead of Kaisar Kyzylorda on wins alone.
- Model gives Tobol a 59% chance of winning this.
- Regular Premier League form gives a decent read on both sides.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75.8%
Tobol Clean Sheet 16%
Kaisar Kyzylorda Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Tobol | Kaisar Kyzylorda |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 29 |
| Wins | 13 | 8 |
| Draws | 4 | 10 |
| Losses | 12 | 11 |
| Goals Scored | 1.55 | 1.1 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.24 | 1.31 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.63 | 1.50 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Aug 25, 2026 Premier League
Tobol vs Kaisar Kyzylorda
3:2
May 17, 2026 Premier League
Kaisar Kyzylorda vs Tobol
2:1
May 13, 2026 Kazakhstan Cup
Kaisar Kyzylorda vs Tobol
2:1
Sep 28, 2025 Premier League
Tobol vs Kaisar Kyzylorda
1:0
Jun 15, 2025 Premier League
Kaisar Kyzylorda vs Tobol
1:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Tobol Compare
Top Goalscorer Myakish M.
1 Goals Assists Leader Marochkin A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.81
Kaisar Kyzylorda Compare
Top Goalscorer Mukhammed A.
2 Goals Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Tobol 75 / 100
Kaisar Kyzylorda 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Tobol Kaisar Kyzylorda
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Tobol Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Attacking prowess: Tobol scored in 76% of their last 29 outings.
Defensive concern: Kaisar Kyzylorda conceded in 79% of 29 recent games.
H2H data points to 2.80 goals as a typical output.
Recent resilience: Tobol stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Tobol VS Kaisar Kyzylorda
1.38 Goals Scored 1.5
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.88
88% Over 1.5 88%
63% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 50%
Recent Form & Match History
Tobol
(Home) 17 Sept
Tobol
0 : 2 Yelimay Semey
13 Sept
Kairat Almaty
1 : 4 Tobol
06 Sept
Tobol
3 : 1 Ulytau
30 Aug
Kaspij Aktau
1 : 0 Tobol
25 Aug
Tobol
3 : 2 Kaisar Kyzylorda
Page 1 of 6
17 Sept
Tobol
0 : 2 Yelimay Semey
06 Sept
Tobol
3 : 1 Ulytau
25 Aug
Tobol
3 : 2 Kaisar Kyzylorda
13 Aug
Tobol
1 : 2 Partizan
30 Jul
Tobol
2 : 1 FK Panevezys
Page 1 of 3
Kaisar Kyzylorda
(Away) 18 Sept
Kyzylzhar
1 : 1 Kaisar Kyzylorda
12 Sept
Kaisar Kyzylorda
1 : 0 Atyrau
06 Sept
Altai
2 : 0 Kaisar Kyzylorda
29 Aug
Kaisar Kyzylorda
2 : 3 Okzhetpes
25 Aug
Tobol
3 : 2 Kaisar Kyzylorda
Page 1 of 6
18 Sept
Kyzylzhar
1 : 1 Kaisar Kyzylorda
06 Sept
Altai
2 : 0 Kaisar Kyzylorda
25 Aug
Tobol
3 : 2 Kaisar Kyzylorda
19 Aug
Zhenis
3 : 2 Kaisar Kyzylorda
26 Jul
Yelimay Semey
1 : 1 Kaisar Kyzylorda
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ordabasy | 26 | 19 | 4 | 3 | 51:18 | 61 |
| 2 | Kairat Almaty | 26 | 17 | 6 | 3 | 51:20 | 57 |
| 3 | FC Astana | 25 | 14 | 6 | 5 | 42:25 | 48 |
| 4 | Okzhetpes | 26 | 13 | 6 | 7 | 41:35 | 45 |
| 5 | Aktobe | 26 | 12 | 6 | 8 | 38:31 | 42 |
| 6 | Yelimay Semey | 25 | 10 | 8 | 7 | 35:33 | 38 |
| 7 | Tobol | 26 | 10 | 4 | 12 | 33:35 | 34 |
| 8 | Zhenis | 26 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 26:32 | 32 |
| 9 | Ulytau | 26 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 24:32 | 32 |
| 10 | Kaspij Aktau | 26 | 8 | 5 | 13 | 27:36 | 29 |
| 11 | Ertis Pavlodar | 25 | 6 | 8 | 11 | 26:34 | 26 |
| 12 | Altai | 26 | 6 | 7 | 13 | 26:36 | 25 |
| 13 | Kaisar Kyzylorda | 26 | 4 | 12 | 10 | 22:33 | 24 |
| 14 | Kyzylzhar | 26 | 6 | 6 | 14 | 26:40 | 24 |
| 15 | Atyrau | 25 | 4 | 11 | 10 | 18:28 | 23 |
| 16 | Zhetysu Taldykorgan | 26 | 5 | 7 | 14 | 26:44 | 22 |
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - First League 2027 (Main)
