Sport Picks
Match Events
35'
35'
Tagybergen A.
(Penalty)
42'
42'
Sub
Talal A. In: Guerra L.
Out: Talal A.
51'
51'
Mukhametkhanov Z.
AI Match Summary
Tobol in this Premier League matchup, with the score ending 3-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Tobol.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
36%
15%
49%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Okzhetpes
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
15%
/ Low Confidence
- Okzhetpes have won more games recently than Tobol.
- Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 40%.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
- Tobol have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 77.8%
Tobol Clean Sheet 13%
Okzhetpes Clean Sheet 13%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Tobol | Okzhetpes |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 29 |
| Wins | 13 | 15 |
| Draws | 4 | 6 |
| Losses | 12 | 8 |
| Goals Scored | 1.55 | 1.72 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.24 | 1.48 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.13 | 1.69 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Jul 12, 2026 Premier League
Tobol vs Okzhetpes
3:1
Jun 21, 2026 Premier League
Okzhetpes vs Tobol
2:1
Jul 13, 2025 Premier League
Tobol vs Okzhetpes
2:1
Apr 5, 2025 Premier League
Okzhetpes vs Tobol
0:1
Jul 23, 2023 Premier League
Tobol vs Okzhetpes
2:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Tobol Compare
Top Goalscorer Senhadji R.
1 Goals Assists Leader Guerra L.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56
Okzhetpes Compare
Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 0.94
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Tobol 31 / 100
Okzhetpes 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Tobol Okzhetpes
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Tobol scored in 76% of their last 29 games.
Defensive concern: Okzhetpes conceded in 79% of 29 recent games.
Games between these two average 2.60 goals.
Solid form: Tobol remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.
Scoring Trends
Tobol VS Okzhetpes
1.13 Goals Scored 2
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.13
75% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 75%
13% Over 3.5 38%
Recent Form & Match History
Tobol
(Home) 17 Sept
Tobol
0 : 2 Yelimay Semey
13 Sept
Kairat Almaty
1 : 4 Tobol
06 Sept
Tobol
3 : 1 Ulytau
30 Aug
Kaspij Aktau
1 : 0 Tobol
25 Aug
Tobol
3 : 2 Kaisar Kyzylorda
Page 1 of 6
17 Sept
Tobol
0 : 2 Yelimay Semey
06 Sept
Tobol
3 : 1 Ulytau
25 Aug
Tobol
3 : 2 Kaisar Kyzylorda
13 Aug
Tobol
1 : 2 Partizan
30 Jul
Tobol
2 : 1 FK Panevezys
Page 1 of 3
Okzhetpes
(Away) 18 Sept
Okzhetpes
3 : 1 Zhenis
13 Sept
Ertis Pavlodar
2 : 1 Okzhetpes
05 Sept
Okzhetpes
2 : 1 Ordabasy
29 Aug
Kaisar Kyzylorda
2 : 3 Okzhetpes
16 Aug
Atyrau
0 : 2 Okzhetpes
Page 1 of 6
13 Sept
Ertis Pavlodar
2 : 1 Okzhetpes
29 Aug
Kaisar Kyzylorda
2 : 3 Okzhetpes
16 Aug
Atyrau
0 : 2 Okzhetpes
09 Aug
FC Astana
2 : 1 Okzhetpes
25 Jul
Aktobe
2 : 1 Okzhetpes
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ordabasy | 26 | 19 | 4 | 3 | 51:18 | 61 |
| 2 | Kairat Almaty | 26 | 17 | 6 | 3 | 51:20 | 57 |
| 3 | FC Astana | 25 | 14 | 6 | 5 | 42:25 | 48 |
| 4 | Okzhetpes | 26 | 13 | 6 | 7 | 41:35 | 45 |
| 5 | Aktobe | 26 | 12 | 6 | 8 | 38:31 | 42 |
| 6 | Yelimay Semey | 25 | 10 | 8 | 7 | 35:33 | 38 |
| 7 | Tobol | 26 | 10 | 4 | 12 | 33:35 | 34 |
| 8 | Zhenis | 26 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 26:32 | 32 |
| 9 | Ulytau | 26 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 24:32 | 32 |
| 10 | Kaspij Aktau | 26 | 8 | 5 | 13 | 27:36 | 29 |
| 11 | Ertis Pavlodar | 25 | 6 | 8 | 11 | 26:34 | 26 |
| 12 | Altai | 26 | 6 | 7 | 13 | 26:36 | 25 |
| 13 | Kaisar Kyzylorda | 26 | 4 | 12 | 10 | 22:33 | 24 |
| 14 | Kyzylzhar | 26 | 6 | 6 | 14 | 26:40 | 24 |
| 15 | Atyrau | 25 | 4 | 11 | 10 | 18:28 | 23 |
| 16 | Zhetysu Taldykorgan | 26 | 5 | 7 | 14 | 26:44 | 22 |
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - First League 2027 (Main)
