Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Tobol vs Okzhetpes

Kazakhstan Kazakhstan

Premier League Centralnyj Stadion, Kostanay
Our Tip

Match Events

35' Event
Tagybergen A.
(Penalty)
42'
Sub
Talal A. In: Guerra L.
Out: Talal A.
51'
Mukhametkhanov Z.

AI Match Summary

Tobol in this Premier League matchup, with the score ending 3-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Tobol.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

90%
Tobol
6%
Draws
4%
Okzhetpes
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Tobol

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Not much separates Tobol and Okzhetpes on recent form.
  • Win probability leans Tobol's way, sitting at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • Tobol have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 77.4%
Tobol Clean Sheet 18%
Okzhetpes Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Tobol Okzhetpes
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 11 11
Draws 7 7
Losses 12 11
Goals Scored 1.38 1.38
Goals Conceded 1.25 2
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.25 2.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 12, 2026 Premier League
Tobol vs Okzhetpes
3:1
Jun 21, 2026 Premier League
Okzhetpes vs Tobol
2:1
Jul 13, 2025 Premier League
Tobol vs Okzhetpes
2:1
Apr 5, 2025 Premier League
Okzhetpes vs Tobol
0:1
Jul 23, 2023 Premier League
Tobol vs Okzhetpes
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Tobol Compare

Top Goalscorer Senhadji R.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Guerra L.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Okzhetpes Compare

Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Tobol 85 / 100
Okzhetpes 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Tobol Okzhetpes

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick TOB Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Tobol scored in 77% of their last 30 games.

Defensive concern: Okzhetpes conceded in 79% of 29 recent games.

Games between these two average 2.60 goals.

Solid form: Tobol remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Tobol VS Okzhetpes
1.38 Goals Scored 1.38
1.25 Goals Conceded 2
88% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 75%
25% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

Tobol

(Home)
26 Jul
Tobol
1 : 0
Atyrau
23 Jul
FK Panevezys
1 : 1
Tobol
18 Jul
Kyzylzhar
1 : 1
Tobol
12 Jul
Tobol
3 : 1
Okzhetpes
04 Jul
Altai
1 : 0
Tobol
Page 1 of 6

Okzhetpes

(Away)
25 Jul
Aktobe
2 : 1
Okzhetpes
18 Jul
Okzhetpes
2 : 0
Zhetysu Taldykorgan
12 Jul
Tobol
3 : 1
Okzhetpes
02 Jul
Kairat Almaty
5 : 0
Okzhetpes
27 Jun
Okzhetpes
1 : 3
Kairat Almaty
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Kairat Almaty20136139:1445
2Ordabasy19134234:1543
3FC Astana1895429:2032
4Aktobe1994628:2131
5Okzhetpes1986525:2630
6Yelimay Semey1876526:2327
7Ulytau1976616:1827
8Tobol1964921:2622
9Zhenis1957717:2322
10Kaspij Aktau19631019:2521
11Kaisar Kyzylorda20311615:2220
12Kyzylzhar19541020:2719
13Atyrau1839613:1718
14Zhetysu Taldykorgan1946922:2918
15Altai1937915:2616
16Ertis Pavlodar1828816:2314
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - First League 2027 (Main)