Sport Picks

Portugal

Taça de Portugal 2024/2025 Complexo Desportivo da Tocha, Tocha

Tocha

1 - 4

Penafiel

Our Tip

Match Events

33'

Suker H.

52'

Suker H.

67'

Skuka X.

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Penafiel in this Taça de Portugal 2024/2025 tie, finishing 1-4. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

26%

Tocha

15%

Draws

59%

Penafiel

Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Penafiel

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

59% / Medium Confidence

Tocha haven't matched Penafiel's recent run of results.
Model gives Penafiel a 59% chance of winning this.
Penafiel arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
Historical meetings favor Penafiel, who have won 1 of the last 1 encounters.
High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%

Over 1.5 Goals 82%

Over 2.5 Goals 78%

Over 3.5 Goals 19%

Over 4.5 Goals 9%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 68.6%

Tocha Clean Sheet 17%

Penafiel Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Tocha	Penafiel
Matches Played	30	30
Wins	3	10
Draws	9	6
Losses	18	14
Goals Scored	0.83	1.13
Goals Conceded	1.83	1.3
Expected Goals (xG)	1.48	1.43
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.10	1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 21, 2024 Taça de Portugal

Tocha vs Penafiel

1:4

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Tocha Compare

Top Goalscorer Loureiro Figueiredo Miranda Dias B. A.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 1.14

Avg xA / game 0.74

Penafiel Compare

Top Goalscorer Suker H.

2 Goals

Assists Leader Skuka X.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 1.3

Avg xA / game 0.79

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Tocha 15 / 100

Penafiel 65 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Tocha Penafiel

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Penafiel Win (2)

Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes

Correct Score 1:2

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

H2H data points to 5.00 goals as a typical output.

Penafiel's defensive record shows goals conceded in 67% of 30 matches.

Tocha's goal record stands at 57% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Solid form: Tocha remains unbeaten in 1 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

- VS Penafiel

0 Goals Scored 1.75

0 Goals Conceded 1.75

0% Over 1.5 75%

0% Over 2.5 63%

0% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Tocha

(Home)

21 Sept

Tocha

1 : 4

Penafiel

23 Sept

Tocha

2 : 4

Rebordosa

10 Sept

Lusitano FCV

0 : 2

Tocha

27 Sept

Anca

3 : 1

Tocha

03 Sept

Tocha

1 : 2

Esmoriz

Page 1 of 6

Penafiel

(Away)

30 Aug

FC Porto B

0 : 3

Penafiel

23 Aug

Penafiel

2 : 0

Sporting CP B

15 Aug

Torreense

2 : 2

Penafiel

08 Aug

Penafiel

0 : 1

Portimonense

01 Aug

Penafiel

0 : 2

Braga B

Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Scroll horizontally to view stages →

1/128-finals

Varzim -

TBD -

Ferreiras -

TBD -

Boavista -

Leca 2

AD Marco 09 3

TBD -

O Elvas CAD -

Academica 2

SB Castelo Branco 0

TBD -

Torreense -

GD Peniche -

TBD -

Pacos Ferreira -

TBD -

Vitoria Guimaraes -

Camacha -

TBD -

Leiria -

TBD -

Nacional -

Marinhense -

TBD -

Caldas SC 1

Uniao Da Serra 0

Tirsense -

TBD -

Vieira 2

Pedras Salgadas 0

Brito 2

Maia Lidador 1

Abrantes Benfica 0

Operario 2

Moura AC 1

Portel 0

TBD -

Castrense -

Covilha -

TBD -

Pedrogao Sao Pedro 1

SC Pombal 3

Moncarapachense 3

Grandolense 0

Louletano 3

Esperanca de Lagos 0

Os Marialvas -

TBD -

Tondela -

Rebordosa 3

Juventude Gaula 0

TBD -

GD Braganca -

CD Lajense -

TBD -

Maria de Fonte 2

Cardielense 1

TBD -

Arouca -

Fatima -

TBD -

Figueirense 0

Sanjoanense 5

TBD -

SC Farense -

Pevidem -

TBD -

Maritimo -

TBD -

Benfica -

Vila Cortez 2

Anadia 4

TBD -

CD Rabo Peixe -

TBD -

Estrela da Amadora -

Guarda FC 5

Estarreja 4

TBD -

Leixoes -

Alcains -

TBD -

C.F. Benfica 4

Industria 3

1º Dezembro -

TBD -

Oliveirense -

TBD -

Braga -

Lusitano GC -

TBD -

Academico Viseu -

TBD -

Estoril -

Ferreira do Zezere 2

Ac. Fundao 0

TBD -

Os Sandinenses -

TBD -

AFS -

CF Os Gavionenses 0

Arronches Benfica 3

SC Vila Real 1

GD Joane 0

Academica Coimbra SF -

TBD -

Atletico Arcos -

Viana Alentejo 1

CF Os Belenenses 2

TBD -

Trofense -

TBD -

Gil Vicente -

Santarem 2

Sacavenense 0

TBD -

Desportivo Moncao -

TBD -

Moreirense -

Sintrense -

TBD -

FC Madalena 0

Estrela Vendas Novas 2

TBD -

FC Porto -

SC Vianense 2

Vinhais 1

TBD -

Portimonense -

TBD -

Sporting CP -

Electrico FC -

TBD -

AD Fafe 1

Amarante FC 4

Lajense -

TBD -

Fabril do Barreiro -

Lagoa -

TBD -

Uniao de Coimbra 3

Beira Mar 2

TBD -

Famalicao -

Gondomar -

TBD -

Alianca de Gandra 2

SC Salgueiros 1

TBD -

Santa Clara -

Amora -

TBD -

FC Felgueiras -

TBD -

Casa Pia -

Valpacos 3

AD Limianos 5

TBD -

Chaves -

Lusitania FC 2

Uniao Lamas 1

TBD -

Vizela -

Coimbroes -

TBD -

Alverca -

Pero Pinheiro -

TBD -

Feirense -

Atletico CP -

TBD -

Oliveira de Frades 0

Mortagua FC 3

TBD -

Rio Ave -

Oliveira Hospital -

TBD -

Machico 3

Macedo de Cavaleiros 0

Montijo -

TBD -

Mafra -

FC Alpendorada -

TBD -

Vieirense 1

Sertanense 4

Cinfaes 3

GD Resende 0

TBD -

FC Barreirense -

Tocha -

TBD -

Penafiel -

Sao Roque 1

SC Lusitania 2

Velense 1

Regua 2

UD Ovarense 1

Sao Joao de Ver 2

Praia Milfontes 0

Serpa 5

Paredes -

TBD -

Dumiense 2

Vilaverdense FC 3

1/64-finals

Varzim 3

Ferreiras 0

TBD -

Boavista -

AD Marco 09 0

O Elvas CAD 1

Academica 0

Torreense 1

GD Peniche 0

Pacos Ferreira 2

TBD -

Vitoria Guimaraes -

Camacha 0

Leiria 2

TBD -

Nacional -

Marinhense 0

Caldas SC 1

Tirsense 2

Vieira 0

Brito 1

Operario 0

Moura AC 4

Castrense 2

Covilha 4

SC Pombal 0

Moncarapachense 2

Louletano 1

Os Marialvas 2

Tondela 1

Rebordosa 2

GD Braganca 1

CD Lajense 0

Maria de Fonte 1

TBD -

Arouca -

Fatima 0

Sanjoanense 1

TBD -

SC Farense -

Pevidem 2

Maritimo 1

TBD -

Benfica -

Anadia 3

CD Rabo Peixe 0

TBD -

Estrela da Amadora -

Guarda FC 0

Leixoes 1

Alcains 4

C.F. Benfica 1

1º Dezembro 2

Oliveirense 1

TBD -

Braga -

Lusitano GC 2

Academico Viseu 1

TBD -

Estoril -

Ferreira do Zezere 1

Os Sandinenses 2

TBD -

AFS -

Arronches Benfica 0

SC Vila Real 1

Academica Coimbra SF 1

Atletico Arcos 2

CF Os Belenenses 3

Trofense 0

TBD -

Gil Vicente -

Santarem 2

Desportivo Moncao 1

TBD -

Moreirense -

Sintrense 2

Estrela Vendas Novas 1

TBD -

FC Porto -

SC Vianense 1

Portimonense 3

TBD -

Sporting CP -

Electrico FC 0

Amarante FC 2

Lajense 2

Fabril do Barreiro 1

Lagoa 2

Uniao de Coimbra 0

TBD -

Famalicao -

Gondomar 1

Alianca de Gandra 0

TBD -

Santa Clara -

Amora 1

FC Felgueiras 0

TBD -

Casa Pia -

AD Limianos 0

Chaves 2

Lusitania FC 4

Vizela 3

Coimbroes 2

Alverca 3

Pero Pinheiro 1

Feirense 0

Atletico CP 3

Mortagua FC 0

TBD -

Rio Ave -

Oliveira Hospital 2

Machico 0

Montijo 1

Mafra 2

FC Alpendorada 3

Sertanense 0

Cinfaes 3

FC Barreirense 2

Tocha 1

Penafiel 4

SC Lusitania 2

Regua 1

Sao Joao de Ver 1

Serpa 0

Paredes 3

Vilaverdense FC 2

1/32-finals

Varzim 1

Boavista 0

O Elvas CAD 3

Torreense 2

Pacos Ferreira 1

Vitoria Guimaraes 3

Leiria 2

Nacional 1

Caldas SC 1

Tirsense 2

Brito 1

Moura AC 0

Covilha 3

Moncarapachense 2

Os Marialvas 1

Rebordosa 2

Maria de Fonte 0

Arouca 5

Sanjoanense 2

SC Farense 4

Pevidem 0

Benfica 2

Anadia 1

Estrela da Amadora 3

Leixoes 2

Alcains 1

1º Dezembro 1

Braga 2

Lusitano GC 1

Estoril 0

Os Sandinenses 0

AFS 2

SC Vila Real 2

Atletico Arcos 0

CF Os Belenenses 0

Gil Vicente 2

Santarem 1

Moreirense 2

Sintrense 0

FC Porto 3

Portimonense 1

Sporting CP 2

Amarante FC 6

Lajense 1

Lagoa 0

Famalicao 2

Gondomar 0

Santa Clara 1

Amora 0

Casa Pia 5

Chaves 2

Lusitania FC 0

Alverca 3

Pero Pinheiro 0

Atletico CP 1

Rio Ave 3

Oliveira Hospital 1

Mafra 0

FC Alpendorada 1

Cinfaes 2

Penafiel 2

SC Lusitania 3

Sao Joao de Ver 4

Paredes 1

1/16-finals

Varzim 1

O Elvas CAD 2

Vitoria Guimaraes 2

Leiria 0

Tirsense 1

Brito 0

Covilha 2

Rebordosa 3

Arouca 1

SC Farense 2

Benfica 7

Estrela da Amadora 0

Leixoes 0

Braga 2

Lusitano GC 3

AFS 2

SC Vila Real 0

Gil Vicente 2

Moreirense 2

FC Porto 1

Sporting CP 6

Amarante FC 0

Famalicao 0

Santa Clara 1

Casa Pia 3

Chaves 0

Alverca 2

Rio Ave 3

Oliveira Hospital 4

Cinfaes 2

SC Lusitania 0

Sao Joao de Ver 2

1/8-finals

O Elvas CAD 2

Vitoria Guimaraes 1

Tirsense 1

Rebordosa 0

SC Farense 1

Benfica 3

Braga 2

Lusitano GC 1

Gil Vicente 1

Moreirense 0

Sporting CP 2

Santa Clara 1

Casa Pia 1

Rio Ave 3

Oliveira Hospital 1

Sao Joao de Ver 3

Quarter-finals

O Elvas CAD 0

Tirsense 2

Benfica 1

Braga 0

Gil Vicente 0

Sporting CP 1

Rio Ave 2

Sao Joao de Ver 1

Semi-finals

Tirsense 0

Benfica 9

Sporting CP 4

Rio Ave 1

Final

Benfica 1

Sporting CP 3

Tocha vs Penafiel

Portugal

Tocha

Penafiel

Match Events

AI Match Summary

Win Probability Meter

Model Confidence

Goal Probability Engine

Recent Team Form Analysis

H2H

Key Player Impact Analysis

Tocha Compare

Penafiel Compare

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Attack & Defence Capability Index

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Scoring Trends

Recent Form & Match History

Tocha

Penafiel

Tournament Bracket & Draw

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