Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Tochigi City vs Iwata

Japan Japan

J2/J3 League City Football Station, Tochigi
Tochigi City Logo

Tochigi City

Sat, May 30, 2026
4 - 3
05:00 AM
Iwata Logo

Iwata

Our Tip

Match Events

32' Event
Pedro Augusto
Own Goal
36' Event
Karlsson D.M.
Assist: Nishiya K.
45'
Pedro Augusto
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 4-3. This leg finished 4-3.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

45%
Tochigi City
15%
Draws
40%
Iwata
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Tochigi City

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

15% / Low Confidence
  • Tochigi City have won more games recently than Iwata.
  • Tochigi City are the model's pick here, at 36%.
  • Tochigi City have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Iwata, who have won 1 of the last 2 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 74.2%
Tochigi City Clean Sheet 18%
Iwata Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Tochigi City Iwata
Matches Played 28 29
Wins 14 13
Draws 1 1
Losses 13 15
Goals Scored 1.61 1.28
Goals Conceded 1.57 1.45
Expected Goals (xG) 1.75 1.31
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 29, 2026 J2 League
Tochigi City vs Iwata
1:3
May 30, 2026 J2/J3 League
Tochigi City vs Iwata
4:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Tochigi City Compare

Top Goalscorer Karlsson D.M.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Saito K.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.35
Avg xA / game 0.88

Iwata Compare

Top Goalscorer Tameda H.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.19
Avg xA / game 0.73

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Tochigi City 36 / 100
Iwata 33 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Tochigi City Iwata

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

H2H data points to 5.50 goals as a typical output.

Attacking prowess: Tochigi City scored in 75% of their last 28 outings.

Iwata's defensive record shows goals conceded in 76% of 29 matches.

Recent resilience: Tochigi City stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Tochigi City VS Iwata
2.13 Goals Scored 1.5
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.38
88% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 63%
50% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Tochigi City

(Home)
12 Sept
Toyama
0 : 0
Tochigi City
06 Sept
Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo
1 : 4
Tochigi City
02 Sept
Vanraure
0 : 2
Tochigi City
29 Aug
Tochigi City
1 : 3
Iwata
26 Aug
Vegalta Sendai
1 : 2
Tochigi City
Page 1 of 6

Iwata

(Away)
12 Sept
Kofu
0 : 1
Iwata
06 Sept
Iwata
0 : 1
Toyama
02 Sept
SC Sagamihara
0 : 3
Iwata
29 Aug
Tochigi City
1 : 3
Iwata
26 Aug
Iwata
0 : 1
Tegevajaro Miyazaki
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Semi-finals
Blaublitz 2
Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo 1
Albirex Niigata 0
Kagoshima United 1
Thespakusatsu Gunma 0
Gifu 1
Kanazawa 1
Gainare Tottori 3
Kamatamare Sanuki 3
Giravanz Kitakyushu 1
Tochigi SC 0
Nagano Parceiro 1
Tokushima 3
Sagan Tosu 1
Shonan Bellmare 1
Iwaki 2
Yokohama FC 2
Omiya Ardija 1
Kochi United 2
Renofa Yamaguchi 3
Montedio Yamagata 1
Matsumoto Yamaga 2
Nara Club 4
Oita Trinita 3
SC Sagamihara 4
Fujieda MYFC 3
Ehime 0
Kumamoto 1
Vanraure 0
Fukushima United 1
Imabari 1
Ryukyu 2
Tochigi City 4
Iwata 3
FC Osaka 0
Reilac Shiga 1
Final
Blaublitz 0
Kagoshima United 2
Gifu 1
Gainare Tottori 2
Kamatamare Sanuki 0
Nagano Parceiro 1
Tokushima 2
Iwaki 0
Yokohama FC 2
Renofa Yamaguchi 1
Matsumoto Yamaga 0
Nara Club 2
SC Sagamihara 3
Kumamoto 0
Fukushima United 2
Ryukyu 1
Tochigi City 3
Reilac Shiga 1