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Tochigi SC vs Azul Claro Numazu

Japan Japan

J3 League 2025 Kanseki Stadium Tochigi
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Tochigi SC play Azul Claro Numazu in the J3 League 2025. It looks like a close match. Recently, Tochigi SC averaged 1.32 goals scored and 1.42 conceded. Azul Claro Numazu averaged 1.23 goals scored and 1.73 conceded. In past meetings, Tochigi SC won 2, Azul Claro Numazu won 0, and they drew 2. Their last match on Aug 16, 2025 ended 3:2. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.25 for Tochigi SC and 2.00 for Azul Claro Numazu. This points to a Tochigi SC double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

51%
Tochigi SC
23%
Draws
26%
Azul Claro Numazu
Draw rate projection: 23% Favored: Tochigi SC

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

81% / High Confidence
  • Tochigi SC picked up more points recently compared to Azul Claro Numazu.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.25 vs 2.00 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 58%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 74%
Over 2.5 Goals 58%
Over 3.5 Goals 35%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 55%
Tochigi SC Clean Sheet 10%
Azul Claro Numazu Clean Sheet 11%
First Half Goal 67%
Second Half Goal 70%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Tochigi SC Azul Claro Numazu
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 12 6
Draws 2 5
Losses 17 19
Goals Scored 1.32 1.23
Goals Conceded 1.42 1.73
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 2.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 2.00 1.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 16, 2025 J3 League
Tochigi SC vs Azul Claro Numazu
3:2
Mar 9, 2025 J3 League
Azul Claro Numazu vs Tochigi SC
0:0
Dec 3, 2017 J3 League
Azul Claro Numazu vs Tochigi SC
1:1
Apr 16, 2017 J3 League
Tochigi SC vs Azul Claro Numazu
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Tochigi SC Compare

Top Goalscorer Ota R.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Fukumori K.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75

Azul Claro Numazu Compare

Top Goalscorer Miyawaki S.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Yanagimachi K.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.82
Avg xA / game 1.11

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Tochigi SC 48 / 100
Azul Claro Numazu 26 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Tochigi SC Azul Claro Numazu

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Tochigi SC or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +18.8%
2.33
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +11.4%
1.92
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Tochigi SC attacking → ← attacking Azul Claro Numazu

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Tochigi SC scored in 68% of their last 31 games.

Azul Claro Numazu let in goals in 77% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 2.50 goals.

Tochigi SC went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Azul Claro Numazu lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

38 Points in last 5 23
1.50 Goals expected (xG) 2.00
2.00 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.00

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Tochigi City38238769:3777
2Vanraure38219846:2372
3FC Osaka38218955:3371
4Tegevajaro Miyazaki381910961:4567
5Kagoshima United381812869:4466
6Kanazawa381851553:4559
7Tochigi SC381771442:3658
8Giravanz Kitakyushu381751646:4156
9Nara Club3815111250:4656
10Fukushima United381681460:6756
11Gainare Tottori381561744:4951
12SC Sagamihara3813111438:5050
13Gifu381381752:6047
14Thespakusatsu Gunma3812101656:5946
15Matsumoto Yamaga3811101741:5043
16Ryukyu3810101841:5740
17Kamatamare Sanuki381082041:5738
18Kochi United381082040:6038
19Nagano Parceiro38982129:5735
20Azul Claro Numazu386102240:5728