Sport Picks

Japan

J2/J3 League Kanseki Stadium Tochigi

Tochigi SC

1 - 2

Montedio Yamagata

Our Tip

Match Events

51'

Doi S.

Assist: Kida R.

55'

Nishino T.

Assist: Nakano K.

63'

Sato S.

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The J2/J3 League game between Tochigi SC and Montedio Yamagata finished 1-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Montedio Yamagata.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

60%

Tochigi SC

22%

Draws

18%

Montedio Yamagata

Draw rate projection: 22% Favored: Tochigi SC

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

82% / Very High Confidence

Montedio Yamagata carry the better recent record into this one.
Model gives Tochigi SC a 60% chance of winning this.
This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Montedio Yamagata have won 5 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%

Over 1.5 Goals 63%

Over 2.5 Goals 25%

Over 3.5 Goals 19%

Over 4.5 Goals 9%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34.8%

Tochigi SC Clean Sheet 68%

Montedio Yamagata Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Tochigi SC	Montedio Yamagata
Matches Played	30	30
Wins	11	14
Draws	2	3
Losses	17	13
Goals Scored	0.75	1
Goals Conceded	1.5	1.63
Expected Goals (xG)	0.75	1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.50	1.63

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 3, 2026 J2/J3 League

Montedio Yamagata vs Tochigi SC

Possession: 42% - 45% Cards: 1 - 2

3:2

Feb 15, 2026 J2/J3 League

Tochigi SC vs Montedio Yamagata

Possession: 42% - 43% Cards: 1 - 1

1:2

Jul 6, 2024 J2 League

Montedio Yamagata vs Tochigi SC

Possession: 53% - 42% Cards: 1 - 4

1:0

Mar 3, 2024 J2 League

Tochigi SC vs Montedio Yamagata

Possession: 52% - 46% Cards: 2 - 1

1:3

Oct 8, 2023 J2 League

Montedio Yamagata vs Tochigi SC

Possession: 51% - 54% Cards: 3 - 1

2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Tochigi SC Compare

Top Goalscorer Nishino T.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 0.58

Avg xA / game 0.38

Montedio Yamagata Compare

Top Goalscorer Doi S.

1 Goals

Assists Leader Horikane S.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 0.91

Avg xA / game 0.56

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Tochigi SC 68 / 100

Montedio Yamagata 19 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Tochigi SC Montedio Yamagata

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick TOC Win (1)

Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No

Correct Score 1:0

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Montedio Yamagata has conceded goals in 87% of their last 30 outings.

Tochigi SC scored in 67% of their last 30 games.

H2H data points to 3.00 goals as a typical output.

Tochigi SC went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Tochigi SC VS Montedio Yamagata

0.75 Goals Scored 1

1.5 Goals Conceded 1.63

63% Over 1.5 63%

50% Over 2.5 50%

13% Over 3.5 25%

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	L	GD	Pts
1	Vegalta Sendai	18	16	2	37:15	43
2	Blaublitz	18	11	7	23:16	35
3	Shonan Bellmare	18	11	7	28:20	31
4	Yokohama FC	18	10	8	36:28	29
5	SC Sagamihara	18	9	9	33:36	28
6	Thespakusatsu Gunma	18	7	11	27:39	23
7	Montedio Yamagata	18	8	10	22:25	22
8	Tochigi City	18	7	11	22:35	21
9	Vanraure	17	5	12	16:23	18
10	Tochigi SC	17	5	12	24:31	17

Pos	Team	P	W	L	GD	Pts
1	Kofu	17	11	6	20:12	33
2	Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo	18	11	7	28:22	31
3	Iwaki	18	11	7	26:20	31
4	Omiya Ardija	18	10	8	39:29	30
5	Fujieda MYFC	18	9	9	24:23	30
6	Gifu	17	9	8	23:25	27
7	Matsumoto Yamaga	18	8	10	33:25	26
8	Iwata	18	9	9	20:25	25
9	Fukushima United	18	6	12	30:43	18
10	Nagano Parceiro	18	5	13	17:36	16

Pos	Team	P	W	L	GD	Pts
1	Toyama	18	13	5	40:26	38
2	Albirex Niigata	18	12	6	24:19	35
3	Tokushima	18	11	7	38:23	32
4	Kochi United	18	10	8	25:23	30
5	Ehime	18	9	9	26:20	28
6	Kanazawa	18	10	8	20:23	27
7	Nara Club	18	7	11	27:36	21
8	FC Osaka	18	6	12	18:23	20
9	Imabari	18	6	12	15:21	20
10	Kamatamare Sanuki	18	6	12	15:34	19

Pos	Team	P	W	L	GD	Pts
1	Tegevajaro Miyazaki	18	15	3	35:13	47
2	Kagoshima United	18	12	6	27:16	33
3	Sagan Tosu	18	10	8	26:18	32
4	Renofa Yamaguchi	18	10	8	27:24	29
5	Kumamoto	18	9	9	21:21	27
6	Gainare Tottori	18	10	8	24:25	27
7	Oita Trinita	18	7	11	19:20	22
8	Reilac Shiga	18	7	11	16:29	21
9	Ryukyu	18	6	12	17:28	17
10	Giravanz Kitakyushu	18	4	14	17:35	15