Sport Picks
Match Events
46'
46'
Sub
Watari D. In: Lucas Barcelos
Out: Watari D.
46'
46'
Sub
Matsumoto N. In: Toyoda A.
Out: Matsumoto N.
59'
59'
Sub
Iwao K. In: Sugimoto T.
Out: Iwao K.
AI Match Summary
Neither side could be separated in this J2 League matchup, with the score ending 0-0.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
57%
15%
28%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Tokushima
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
15%
/ Low Confidence
- Sagan Tosu average 1.53 goals a game right now, well clear of Tokushima's 1.52.
- 42% — that's where the model lands on Tokushima taking it.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 65.4%
Tokushima Clean Sheet 16%
Sagan Tosu Clean Sheet 13%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Tokushima | Sagan Tosu |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 30 |
| Wins | 16 | 16 |
| Draws | 1 | 2 |
| Losses | 12 | 12 |
| Goals Scored | 1.52 | 1.53 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.28 | 1 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.13 | 1.44 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Aug 16, 2026 J2 League
Tokushima vs Sagan Tosu
0:0
May 30, 2026 J2/J3 League
Tokushima vs Sagan Tosu
3:1
Nov 2, 2025 J2 League
Sagan Tosu vs Tokushima
0:0
May 6, 2025 J2 League
Tokushima vs Sagan Tosu
0:1
Oct 3, 2021 J1 League
Tokushima vs Sagan Tosu
3:0
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Tokushima 41 / 100
Sagan Tosu 37 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Tokushima Sagan Tosu
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Tokushima scored in 79% of their last 29 games.
Historical meetings average 1.60 goals per match.
Sagan Tosu's recent record shows 4 losses from the last 5 matches.
Sagan Tosu's defensive record shows goals conceded in 57% of 30 matches.
Scoring Trends
Tokushima VS Sagan Tosu
1 Goals Scored 1.38
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.25
50% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 38%
Recent Form & Match History
Tokushima
(Home) 03 Oct
Albirex Niigata
2 : 1 Tokushima
26 Sept
Tokushima
3 : 0 Tochigi City
23 Sept
Gamba Osaka
5 : 0 Tokushima
19 Sept
Kofu
0 : 1 Tokushima
12 Sept
Blaublitz
4 : 1 Tokushima
Page 1 of 6
26 Sept
Tokushima
3 : 0 Tochigi City
05 Sept
Tokushima
1 : 0 Iwaki
29 Aug
Tokushima
1 : 0 Oita Trinita
26 Aug
Tokushima
3 : 0 FC Tokushima
16 Aug
Tokushima
0 : 0 Sagan Tosu
Page 1 of 3
Sagan Tosu
(Away) 04 Oct
Blaublitz
1 : 0 Sagan Tosu
29 Sept
Sagan Tosu
2 : 1 Verdy
26 Sept
Montedio Yamagata
2 : 0 Sagan Tosu
23 Sept
Vissel Kobe
1 : 0 Sagan Tosu
19 Sept
Sagan Tosu
1 : 3 Iwaki
Page 1 of 6
04 Oct
Blaublitz
1 : 0 Sagan Tosu
26 Sept
Montedio Yamagata
2 : 0 Sagan Tosu
23 Sept
Vissel Kobe
1 : 0 Sagan Tosu
12 Sept
Imabari
1 : 0 Sagan Tosu
02 Sept
Nara Club
1 : 2 Sagan Tosu
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vegalta Sendai | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 17:8 | 20 |
| 2 | Albirex Niigata | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 13:13 | 19 |
| 3 | Toyama | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 18:9 | 17 |
| 4 | Omiya Ardija | 9 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 17:8 | 17 |
| 5 | Yokohama FC | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 18:11 | 17 |
| 6 | Shonan Bellmare | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 10:8 | 16 |
| 7 | Fujieda MYFC | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 13:10 | 13 |
| 8 | Blaublitz | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 12:10 | 13 |
| 9 | Tokushima | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 9:10 | 13 |
| 10 | Montedio Yamagata | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 11:8 | 12 |
| 11 | Tegevajaro Miyazaki | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 13:13 | 12 |
| 12 | Oita Trinita | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 9:7 | 11 |
| 13 | Tochigi City | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 15:15 | 10 |
| 14 | Iwata | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 11:13 | 10 |
| 15 | Vanraure | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 5:14 | 10 |
| 16 | Iwaki | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 12:17 | 9 |
| 17 | Sagan Tosu | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 8:12 | 8 |
| 18 | Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 12:18 | 8 |
| 19 | Imabari | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 9:18 | 7 |
| 20 | Kofu | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 7:17 | 7 |
Promotion - J1 League 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - J2 League (Promotion)
Relegation - J3 League 2027/2028 (Main)
