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Tolmin vs Zidgrad Idrija

Slovenia Slovenia

3. SNL - West 2025/2026
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

The 3. SNL - West 2025/2026 game between Tolmin and Zidgrad Idrija finished 3-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Tolmin.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

90%
Tolmin
6%
Draws
4%
Zidgrad Idrija
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Tolmin

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Tolmin carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Tolmin are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73%
Tolmin Clean Sheet 20%
Zidgrad Idrija Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Tolmin Zidgrad Idrija
Matches Played 30 26
Wins 15 6
Draws 4 4
Losses 11 16
Goals Scored 2.38 0.63
Goals Conceded 1.25 2
Expected Goals (xG) 2.38 0.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.25 2.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 9, 2026 3. SNL - West
Tolmin vs Zidgrad Idrija
3:0
Oct 25, 2025 3. SNL - West
Zidgrad Idrija vs Tolmin
1:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Tolmin 85 / 100
Zidgrad Idrija 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Tolmin Zidgrad Idrija

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick TOL Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Zidgrad Idrija conceded in 81% of 26 recent games.

Recent resilience: Tolmin stayed unbeaten in 5 of the last 5 games.

Tolmin found the back of the net in 73% of recent matches (30 games).

Games between these two average 2.00 goals.

Scoring Trends

Tolmin VS Zidgrad Idrija
2.38 Goals Scored 0.63
1.25 Goals Conceded 2
88% Over 1.5 63%
88% Over 2.5 50%
50% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Tolmin

(Home)
23 May
Ziri
0 : 3
Tolmin
16 May
Tolmin
0 : 0
Fama Vipava
09 May
Tolmin
3 : 0
Zidgrad Idrija
02 May
Skofja Loka
1 : 3
Tolmin
25 Apr
Tolmin
5 : 0
IB 1975 Ljubljana
Page 1 of 6

Zidgrad Idrija

(Away)
23 May
Bistrc
3 : 3
Zidgrad Idrija
17 May
Zidgrad Idrija
0 : 0
Ziri
09 May
Tolmin
3 : 0
Zidgrad Idrija
02 May
Zidgrad Idrija
1 : 0
Fama Vipava
25 Apr
Zidgrad Idrija
0 : 1
Skofja Loka
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Vrhnika26175463:2156
2Sencur26166446:2754
3Dob26155654:2950
4Tolmin26143947:3345
5Izola26126853:3942
6Rudar Trbovlje26118756:3941
7IB 1975 Ljubljana261131235:4436
8Sobec Lesce261061031:3236
9Skofja Loka26791037:4230
10Ziri26761330:5227
11Fama Vipava26681228:4226
12Ljubljana Svoboda26651530:5123
13Zidgrad Idrija26641634:5722
14Bistrc26541735:7119
Promotion - 2. SNL (Main)