Sport Picks

Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 4 2021/2022

Barakaldo

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Tolosa play Barakaldo in the Tercera RFEF - Group 4 2021/2022. Barakaldo are favorites here. Recently, Tolosa averaged 1.23 goals scored and 2.2 conceded. Barakaldo averaged 1.53 goals scored and 1.06 conceded. In past meetings, Tolosa won 0, Barakaldo won 2, and they drew 0. Their last match on Mar 5, 2022 ended 2:3. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.17 for Tolosa and 1.18 for Barakaldo. This points to a Barakaldo double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

20%

Tolosa

18%

Draws

62%

Barakaldo

Draw rate projection: 18% Favored: Barakaldo

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

89% / Very High Confidence

Tolosa picked up more points recently compared to Barakaldo.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.17 vs 1.18 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 66%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%

Over 1.5 Goals 83%

Over 2.5 Goals 66%

Over 3.5 Goals 40%

Over 4.5 Goals 20%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 58%

Tolosa Clean Sheet 20%

Barakaldo Clean Sheet 12%

First Half Goal 75%

Second Half Goal 79%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Tolosa	Barakaldo
Matches Played	30	32
Wins	6	15
Draws	3	8
Losses	21	9
Goals Scored	1.23	1.53
Goals Conceded	2.2	1.06

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 5, 2022 Tercera RFEF - Group 4

Tolosa vs Barakaldo

Possession: 49% - 41% Cards: 3 - 1

2:3

Oct 31, 2021 Tercera RFEF - Group 4

Barakaldo vs Tolosa

Possession: 47% - 40% Cards: 3 - 3

4:2

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Tolosa 22 / 100

Barakaldo 58 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Tolosa Barakaldo

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Barakaldo Win (2)

Secondary Pick Barakaldo & Over 2.5

First Half Result Draw (HT)

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +66.6%

8.33

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +10.2%

1.67

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Tolosa attacking → ← attacking Barakaldo

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Tolosa scored in 70% of their last 30 games.

Barakaldo let in goals in 69% of their last 32 matches.

Games between these two average 5.50 goals.

Tolosa went unbeaten in 0 of their last 5 games.

Barakaldo lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

21 Points in last 5 53

0.00 Goals expected (xG) 1.25

0.00 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.13

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Alaves B	38	21	13	4	72:31	76
2	Beasain	38	19	13	6	65:36	70
3	Portugalete	38	19	13	6	60:33	70
4	Barakaldo	38	20	9	9	64:46	69
5	Basconia	38	18	11	9	45:32	65
6	CD Vitoria	38	16	11	11	55:49	59
7	San Ignacio	38	17	7	14	57:48	58
8	SCD Durango	38	13	18	7	42:29	57
9	Leioa	38	15	11	12	55:38	56
10	Anaitasuna FT	38	14	10	14	48:49	52
11	Lagun Onak	38	13	12	13	42:44	51
12	Pasaia	38	13	11	14	36:43	50
13	SD Deusto	38	11	16	11	42:40	49
14	Urduliz FT	38	12	9	17	39:57	45
15	Aurrera Ondarroa	38	10	8	20	36:55	38
16	Santutxu FC	38	8	14	16	42:60	38
17	Uritarra	38	10	8	20	38:52	38
18	Amurrio Club	38	8	13	17	39:45	37
19	Beti Gazte	38	6	8	24	34:80	26
20	Tolosa	38	7	5	26	43:87	26